This coming Friday (based on data from Coinbase Markets), about $18.1 billion worth of BTC and ETH options are set to expire and be settled in a concentrated manner. For BTC, the current ratio is 0.66, meaning there are quite a bit more call-buying (betting on an up move) contracts than put-buying (betting on a down move) contracts. The ratio for newly opened contracts over the past day is even lower, at only 0.37, which suggests that people who entered the market in the last couple of days are even more inclined to bet on an up move. For ETH, it’s 0.61 and 0.55, with a similar situation.
For ordinary users, the key point isn’t that “since more people are betting on an up move, the price must go up.” An optimistic options positioning structure doesn’t necessarily mean the price will rise accordingly. What tends to churn prices around expiration is the hedging activity by the institutions that sell these options (market makers) so they don’t lose money: they continuously buy and sell between the spot and derivatives markets in response to price changes. This action often makes prices wobble back and forth in the days around expiration—this isn’t necessarily the same as “everyone betting on an up direction.” If you already hold positions, pay extra attention to volatility these days; don’t simply interpret a “low put/call ratio” as a signal that the price is about to rise.#比特币突破8.7万美元创八个月新高 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #140亿美元比特币期权周五到期
For ordinary users, the key point isn’t that “since more people are betting on an up move, the price must go up.” An optimistic options positioning structure doesn’t necessarily mean the price will rise accordingly. What tends to churn prices around expiration is the hedging activity by the institutions that sell these options (market makers) so they don’t lose money: they continuously buy and sell between the spot and derivatives markets in response to price changes. This action often makes prices wobble back and forth in the days around expiration—this isn’t necessarily the same as “everyone betting on an up direction.” If you already hold positions, pay extra attention to volatility these days; don’t simply interpret a “low put/call ratio” as a signal that the price is about to rise.#比特币突破8.7万美元创八个月新高 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #140亿美元比特币期权周五到期