Gold looks like it’s been driven to this extent—can rate hikes still keep it down?
Gold $XAUT closed at $4,338.9 on September 22, down for two straight days. But this pullback is a bit interesting: the Fed just raised rates, and the market is still betting on another hike in December, yet the gold price didn’t simply collapse.
The money is actually still there. In August, global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $18 billion, with holdings increasing by 121 tons—pushing total holdings directly to a record high of 4,189 tons. In China alone, gold imports exceeded 1,000 tons in the first eight months.
Now, gold trading is no longer only about “rate-cut expectations.” Some people are truly treating it as a long-term asset to allocate to. Higher interest rates certainly pressure valuations, but if ETFs, central banks, and Asian funds continue to step in, this “knife” of interest rates may not work as well.
The pullback around the 4,339 level feels more like a test of how firm these real buyers are. If ETF inflows start to slow down or if central banks ease their pace, that’s when gold will face real pressure. Conversely, if funds keep flowing in, higher rates may not be able to force it back down.
Gold $XAUT closed at $4,338.9 on September 22, down for two straight days. But this pullback is a bit interesting: the Fed just raised rates, and the market is still betting on another hike in December, yet the gold price didn’t simply collapse.
The money is actually still there. In August, global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $18 billion, with holdings increasing by 121 tons—pushing total holdings directly to a record high of 4,189 tons. In China alone, gold imports exceeded 1,000 tons in the first eight months.
Now, gold trading is no longer only about “rate-cut expectations.” Some people are truly treating it as a long-term asset to allocate to. Higher interest rates certainly pressure valuations, but if ETFs, central banks, and Asian funds continue to step in, this “knife” of interest rates may not work as well.
The pullback around the 4,339 level feels more like a test of how firm these real buyers are. If ETF inflows start to slow down or if central banks ease their pace, that’s when gold will face real pressure. Conversely, if funds keep flowing in, higher rates may not be able to force it back down.