BTC’s “flywheel” is here.
Macro bearish news has been absorbed, and BTC has surged quickly, starting to squeeze and crush the shorts.
Forced to buy to close, the shorts end up becoming fuel for the rally.
The higher the price climbs, the more likely it is to trigger short liquidations at higher levels.
Spot ETF inflows begin to enter the market, and they also absorb the spot buy pressure.
Most people likely didn’t expect that the fuse that ignited this round of BTC’s rally was actually the interest-rate-hike “bearish” news being resolved.
That’s how this “flywheel” forms:
Rise → short liquidations → shorts forced to buy to cover → ETFs take over with spot momentum → further rise → more short liquidations
If this “flywheel” can keep going, the number of shorts doesn’t matter anymore. Even if there are more shorts, the fuel will eventually run out.
Looking ahead, we still need to watch spot strength:
This round of retail participation has basically been minimal. Judging from the intentions of the big players, they also won’t offer retail too many chances for a pullback. Relying on retail power alone basically won’t work.
But spot ETFs are completely different. Institutional positions aren’t overly concerned with price; they focus mainly on trend and timing. Whether BTC can continue rising depends on institutions’ willingness to buy.
If ETF inflows continue, 80,000–85,000 will turn into the new support. Then this market move may gradually shift from a “short squeeze” to truly sustained spot buying—that would be the real start of an upward trend.
Macro bearish news has been absorbed, and BTC has surged quickly, starting to squeeze and crush the shorts.
Forced to buy to close, the shorts end up becoming fuel for the rally.
The higher the price climbs, the more likely it is to trigger short liquidations at higher levels.
Spot ETF inflows begin to enter the market, and they also absorb the spot buy pressure.
Most people likely didn’t expect that the fuse that ignited this round of BTC’s rally was actually the interest-rate-hike “bearish” news being resolved.
That’s how this “flywheel” forms:
Rise → short liquidations → shorts forced to buy to cover → ETFs take over with spot momentum → further rise → more short liquidations
If this “flywheel” can keep going, the number of shorts doesn’t matter anymore. Even if there are more shorts, the fuel will eventually run out.
Looking ahead, we still need to watch spot strength:
This round of retail participation has basically been minimal. Judging from the intentions of the big players, they also won’t offer retail too many chances for a pullback. Relying on retail power alone basically won’t work.
But spot ETFs are completely different. Institutional positions aren’t overly concerned with price; they focus mainly on trend and timing. Whether BTC can continue rising depends on institutions’ willingness to buy.
If ETF inflows continue, 80,000–85,000 will turn into the new support. Then this market move may gradually shift from a “short squeeze” to truly sustained spot buying—that would be the real start of an upward trend.
