The win rate is 67%, but the profit-loss ratio is 0.84. It's the complete opposite of what textbooks say, yet it held up over four years.
From the wallet ledger that Wonyotti made public, we calculated it ourselves. The dataset includes 2,172 realized profit-and-loss events recorded by the exchange.
1,455 wins 717 losses, win rate 67.0%.
Average profit 5.90 BTC, average loss 7.04 BTC. The profit-loss ratio is 0.84, which is less than 1.
It is exactly the opposite of the rule "Stop-loss is short, take-profit is long."
But when you look at the median, it flips. Median profit is 0.64 BTC, median loss is 0.54 BTC, giving a ratio of 1.17.
In most cases, ordinary trading was fine, and a small number of big losses pulled the average down.
What you endure and what remains is the edge. Profit factor 1.70, expected value per event +1.63 BTC.
By date, of the 1,379 days when realized P&L occurred, 66.1% were winning days. The average gain on winning days is +8.95 BTC, and the average loss on losing days is -9.90 BTC.
Both the best and worst days are in a crash market. On March 13, 2020: +275.5 BTC; on May 20, 2021: -281.8 BTC.
The strangest year in the file is 2021. It has the highest win rate at 71.4%, the worst risk-reward ratio at 0.70, and the largest result at +2,069 BTC.
It means that it was the hit rate and the number of repetitions—not the risk-reward ratio—that did the work.
What this record refutes is the cliché that "a good trader cuts losses short and grows profits by a few times the risk." This person was almost the opposite, yet grew through compounding.
Instead, what this record supports is this: in a market you can repeat thousands of times, you can stay in the game even when you're wrong—by keeping the correct proportion high enough.
This is the methodology. It is based on realized P&L events recorded by the exchange, not on round-trip trade units reconstructed from executions. The size differs per event. The period is from March 2018 to December 2021. We calculated it from the 공개 file, not investment advice.
Source: https://gall.dcinside.com/mgallery/board/view/?id=chartanalysis&no=5051684