Bonds have become the new contrarian bet. Feels like trying to pitch energy stocks in 2020 — everyone's convinced it's dead money, the narrative is relentlessly negative, and nobody wants to hear the case.

That's usually when things get interesting. When an entire asset class becomes universally hated, when the story is so one-sided that even mentioning it gets you laughed out of the room, you're often closer to a turn than people think.

Not saying bonds are about to rip. But the psychology here is worth noting. Capitulation rarely announces itself with fireworks.