This message looks like a de-escalation signal, but when I watch the $XAU and $CL order books, it really doesn’t seem like the market is buying it.
$XAU is currently around 4366. In the past 24 hours it’s basically flat—down just 0.11%, barely moved. If geopolitical risk is cooling off, haven demand should fade and gold should fall. But it hasn’t. That suggests the market doesn’t believe this will end well.
Even talk like “annihilation” has been thrown out, so can a few remarks in a meeting really just make it all go away? I think that’s unlikely.
As for $CL , it’s behaving more straightforwardly—it’s down 2.8 points, to 89.6. Oil prices are more sensitive to supply-side news. As long as nothing truly goes wrong at Hormuz, the risk premium should continue to unwind. This pullback seems fairly reasonable.
But my view is that this round of talks is at most a buffer, not a turning point. The sideways trading in $XAU is the evidence—if it were genuinely de-escalating, it should have already broken down decisively. If the talks fail later, that little $CL drop could be clawed back in minutes. At this level, I’m more inclined to think $XAU ’s calm is “storm-before-the-storm,” not risk clearing.
#Gold
$XAU is currently around 4366. In the past 24 hours it’s basically flat—down just 0.11%, barely moved. If geopolitical risk is cooling off, haven demand should fade and gold should fall. But it hasn’t. That suggests the market doesn’t believe this will end well.
Even talk like “annihilation” has been thrown out, so can a few remarks in a meeting really just make it all go away? I think that’s unlikely.
As for $CL , it’s behaving more straightforwardly—it’s down 2.8 points, to 89.6. Oil prices are more sensitive to supply-side news. As long as nothing truly goes wrong at Hormuz, the risk premium should continue to unwind. This pullback seems fairly reasonable.
But my view is that this round of talks is at most a buffer, not a turning point. The sideways trading in $XAU is the evidence—if it were genuinely de-escalating, it should have already broken down decisively. If the talks fail later, that little $CL drop could be clawed back in minutes. At this level, I’m more inclined to think $XAU ’s calm is “storm-before-the-storm,” not risk clearing.
#Gold