1. The big trigger: the SEC approves tokenized stocks.
Today (22) opens the SEC 5-year exemption window. For the first time, institutional funds will be able to trade tokenized shares directly on a public blockchain. If it works, it will be the biggest push for tokenization since ETFs.
2. A macro driver that will move the BTC
-Wednesday 24/09: U.S. unemployment insurance claims + sales of new homes.
-Thursday 25/09: Durable goods + Michigan consumer sentiment (forecast 47.8, very weak)
The Fed just raised its benchmark rate to 4.00% last week and the market is still digesting it. BTC is resilient near $84k, ignoring the hawkish tone for now.
3. Friday is a bomb day: Options expiration.
More than $23 billion in BTC and ETH options expire on Friday 26/09. BTC’s Max Pain is at $110k. That’s what caused $1.48 billion in liquidations in the last similar expiry. Expect fireworks Thursday/Friday.
What I would keep an eye on:
-BTC needs to hold $108k-$109k. If it breaks, analysts are looking at $96k. If it holds, the market is already positioned with calls at $120k-$140k for the medium term.
-Fear still dominates: Fear and Greed index in 45 (Fear).
-Alts: Last week only BNB (+11%), AVAX, and WLFI closed in the green. The rest bled.
Practical summary: Monday through Wednesday sideways; Thursday/Friday strong volatility due to options. Not a week to be leveraged.
