Shares of the oil and gas company Gazprom on Tuesday, September 22, jumped by 3.17%; at the peak, the quote reached ₽100.27 per share. This is evidenced by data at 16:45 Moscow time. The last time the company’s shares traded above ₽100 was on July 2 of this year.

The driver of the rise in share prices, in particular, was the news that the German party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) has won another victory in the state elections. Party leaders are leaning toward restarting “Nord Stream.”

At the end of last week, Reuters reported on preparations for a 2027 meeting between the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Kirill Dmitriev, and representatives of the AfD to discuss the restoration of gas supplies to Germany. Reuters said it had learned about the preparation of such a meeting from two sources familiar with the plans.

At the same time, as a source for the outlet reported, the meeting will take place only if the terms of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine are first agreed upon. Organizers nevertheless hope the meeting will bring together AfD, Russia and the United States. According to their data, possible locations for the summit could be Israel, the United Arab Emirates, or India. The meeting may not happen earlier than March of next year.

However, as Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam, notes, even though Gazprom received support against the backdrop of the election results in Germany and the strengthening of AfD’s position, it would be premature to treat this as a bet on the near-term return of Russian gas to Europe.

Shares of the gas-producing company are also rising ahead of the publication of details of the federal budget: on Thursday, the Russian government will consider a draft budget for 2027–2029.

This means that in the coming days, forecasts regarding the inflow of dividend payments to the budget from state-owned companies will become known, which has a direct impact on certain stocks. This will be very important for Gazprom shares, which have not paid dividends since 2022, analysts at the VTB Moia Analitika project noted.

In their view, if in the 2027 budget there is a significant increase in dividend inflows from state-owned companies, that would be a direct signal of the agency’s desire to receive dividends from Gazprom. In such a scenario, the company’s share price would quickly rise regardless of external factors.

Based on 2026 results, conditions will arise for resuming payments, analysts add. Forecasts include net profit, free cash flow, and debt burden at an acceptable level. However, the consensus forecast does not include payments for 2026.

#GlobalEconomicNews , #RawMaterialsMarkets , #EnergyIndependence

Today you forgot to subscribe to our group telling about news from the macroeconomic agenda surrounding our reality? Then it’s no surprise that already tomorrow you’ll have nothing to share with friends interested in macroeconomics!