TON ecosystem breakdown — without rose-colored glasses.
Network: $GRAM (ex Toncoin) ~1.43$, market cap ~4.03$ bn. Telegram as a distribution layer — a real moat. But DeFi TVL on TON ~50–65$ m: for an L1 with this audience, it’s weak. Stablecoins on-chain ~757$ m — the money exists, but there’s almost none of it in DeFi. $BTC’s rally and jetton on TON by itself doesn’t fix anything.
What’s actually alive:
• DEX: STON.fi (V2 ~70%+ of volume), DeDust is second. $STON is a utility DEX; liquidity is thin outside USDT pairs.
• Liquid staking: Tonstakers — infrastructure, not a meme.
• Payments: USDT inside Telegram — the network’s main use case.
Tap-to-earn graveyard (criticism):
• $NOT — a virus for tens of millions of users, mcap ~49$ m. Onboarding worked, but token value after TGE — none.
• $CATI ~44$ m — better-packed gamefi, but still a mini-app hype.
• $DOGS ~26$ m, $HMSTR ~11$ m — mem/tap after the giveaway: volume exists, but the “retention” thesis is almost dead.
• $UTYA and a bunch of jetton — speculation, not a product.
My take: $GRAM is bought for Telegram and payments, not for DeFi. Most jetton on TON are one-off farming of the messenger’s audience. After the 2024–25 hype cycle, DEX + staking + stables will survive. The rest is noise.
Do you agree that TON is overvalued as DeFi and undervalued as rails for Telegram payments?
Network: $GRAM (ex Toncoin) ~1.43$, market cap ~4.03$ bn. Telegram as a distribution layer — a real moat. But DeFi TVL on TON ~50–65$ m: for an L1 with this audience, it’s weak. Stablecoins on-chain ~757$ m — the money exists, but there’s almost none of it in DeFi. $BTC’s rally and jetton on TON by itself doesn’t fix anything.
What’s actually alive:
• DEX: STON.fi (V2 ~70%+ of volume), DeDust is second. $STON is a utility DEX; liquidity is thin outside USDT pairs.
• Liquid staking: Tonstakers — infrastructure, not a meme.
• Payments: USDT inside Telegram — the network’s main use case.
Tap-to-earn graveyard (criticism):
• $NOT — a virus for tens of millions of users, mcap ~49$ m. Onboarding worked, but token value after TGE — none.
• $CATI ~44$ m — better-packed gamefi, but still a mini-app hype.
• $DOGS ~26$ m, $HMSTR ~11$ m — mem/tap after the giveaway: volume exists, but the “retention” thesis is almost dead.
• $UTYA and a bunch of jetton — speculation, not a product.
My take: $GRAM is bought for Telegram and payments, not for DeFi. Most jetton on TON are one-off farming of the messenger’s audience. After the 2024–25 hype cycle, DEX + staking + stables will survive. The rest is noise.
Do you agree that TON is overvalued as DeFi and undervalued as rails for Telegram payments?