Someone always worries that crypto and stock returns can’t beat Bitcoin. Actually, they just haven’t beaten it over the past few days. If you look over a longer period, the advantages of the four crypto-stock “kings” are still very significant.
There are very few assets that can outperform Bitcoin within a single cycle. But I’m very confident that the four crypto-stock names—CRCL, COIN, HOOD, and MSTR—will outperform by at least 20%. The crypto implementation of the bills is not yet fully in place. When regulations ease and the implementation happens, the resulting surge can drive crypto-stocks into a double-up行情. Bitcoin’s current volatility is smaller, and doubling it becomes much harder. In a bull market, stocks with revenue expectations can grow their earnings by several times, and it’s not that difficult for their stock prices to more than double. The fundamentals are already much better than in the previous cycle, so breaking to new highs isn’t surprising.
$COINB current market cap is $50 billion; the high point was $100 billion
HOOD current market cap is $110.9 billion; the high point was $130 billion
$CRCLB current market cap is $25 billion; the high point was $77 billion
$MSTRB current market cap is $67 billion; the high point was $128 billion
If Bitcoin rises to $200,000, that’s a 130% increase. For the four crypto-stock “kings,” I think their future expected upside should reach at least 150%—and this is still based on conservative estimates that assume performance growth. It’s already enough to beat Bitcoin.
This round of altcoins is very likely to be worse than the last round. There’s no big upside ceiling left once the total altcoin market value can reach the same order of magnitude as the U.S. Russell—$1 trillion. The risk-reward odds are clearly not as good as the four crypto-stock “kings.”
There are very few assets that can outperform Bitcoin within a single cycle. But I’m very confident that the four crypto-stock names—CRCL, COIN, HOOD, and MSTR—will outperform by at least 20%. The crypto implementation of the bills is not yet fully in place. When regulations ease and the implementation happens, the resulting surge can drive crypto-stocks into a double-up行情. Bitcoin’s current volatility is smaller, and doubling it becomes much harder. In a bull market, stocks with revenue expectations can grow their earnings by several times, and it’s not that difficult for their stock prices to more than double. The fundamentals are already much better than in the previous cycle, so breaking to new highs isn’t surprising.
$COINB current market cap is $50 billion; the high point was $100 billion
HOOD current market cap is $110.9 billion; the high point was $130 billion
$CRCLB current market cap is $25 billion; the high point was $77 billion
$MSTRB current market cap is $67 billion; the high point was $128 billion
If Bitcoin rises to $200,000, that’s a 130% increase. For the four crypto-stock “kings,” I think their future expected upside should reach at least 150%—and this is still based on conservative estimates that assume performance growth. It’s already enough to beat Bitcoin.
This round of altcoins is very likely to be worse than the last round. There’s no big upside ceiling left once the total altcoin market value can reach the same order of magnitude as the U.S. Russell—$1 trillion. The risk-reward odds are clearly not as good as the four crypto-stock “kings.”
