🌙 Evening Update · September 22

MSFT rose 1.04% yesterday with a 2.1% range—can the gap at 495.750 be filled?

That bullish candle wasn’t bad, and the 2.1% intraday range shows there was back-and-forth. It ended up up 1.04%, but trading value was only $19 million. That volume is rather cold for a stock like MSFT, suggesting big funds didn’t really participate—more like retail investors and short-term funds pushing it. Now the price is still 1.12% away from 495.750. This level is the lower edge of yesterday’s consolidation zone and the breakout point of this small rebound. If at 495.750 you see volume follow through, it would suggest yesterday’s low is being supported. The next target would be 501.779. But if it doesn’t even get tested and price slips straight down, then 491.637 is the final line of defense. If that breaks, it means yesterday’s bullish candle was just a bull trap. My view: the news about Xbox layoffs may weigh on sentiment in the short term, but a stock as large as MSFT won’t collapse just because one division adjusts. Around 495.750, there’s a high chance that funds will be willing to step in—once it gets there, it’s all about whether it can hold. If it can’t, don’t force it.

The Nasdaq is up 2.26%, and tech stocks are leading—the risk appetite has clearly returned. But BTC is only down 0.46% to 86,220 and didn’t keep up with this upside momentum. The VIX is down 13.72% over the week, which indicates safe-haven money is retreating too—not being “siphoned away.” What’s really weighing things down is the U.S. dollar index up 1.41% over the past month, and even though the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3.5 basis points, it’s still around 4.963%—the opportunity cost for non-yielding assets hasn’t dropped. As a result, BTC is likely to keep grinding around 86,000 in the near term, waiting for the dollar and Treasuries to ease before it can catch up with a meaningful rally.

Tonight’s other 7 levels—posting them all here:
AAOI Short entry 111.068 / Take profit 106.480 / Stop loss 114.197 15x
WDC Short entry 462.164 / Take profit 447.309 / Stop loss 472.296 17x
AMZN Long entry 253.826 / Take profit 257.818 / Stop loss 251.103 20x
CRWV Short entry 94.565 / Take profit 90.173 / Stop loss 97.560 14x
CRCL Long entry 88.854 / Take profit 93.447 / Stop loss 85.721 13x
CRDO Short entry 208.449 / Take profit 192.427 / Stop loss 219.378 10x
BABA Long entry 112.397 / Take profit 114.885 / Stop loss 110.700 20x

All are limit orders—if the price doesn’t trade to that level, they don’t count.
$BTC $AAOI $MSFT #BTC #TokenizedStocks
For MSFT at this level, would you place an order, or wait for it to break first?

I’ve been trading U.S. stocks for 3 years—came because Binance can do U.S. stocks. Two updates every day, morning and night—you can keep an eye on them.