On September 18, Bitcoin reclaimed the $80,000 level, the first time since September 7. Intraday, it briefly touched a high of $81,043, rising by about 4.6%–5.9% over 24 hours. But what’s truly worth dissecting isn’t the price—it’s the quality of this rally.
The first layer is derivatives. Data from Coinglass shows that roughly $192 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within an hour, including $183 million in short positions. Over 24 hours, short liquidations totaled about $238 million, and the total liquidation of shorts across the entire crypto market exceeded $470 million. In other words, the vast majority of liquidations came from shorts—this is a classic short squeeze, not fresh money flowing in. FxPro’s Kuptsikevich put it plainly: this is position adjustment, not a change in fundamentals.
The second layer is fundamentals. On September 18, U.S. spot ETF $BTC saw net inflows of about $433 million, reversing the prior streak of continuous outflows. On September 17, the SEC granted an “innovation exemption” for tokenized securities trading platforms, and on the same day the CFTC submitted two crypto market rules to the White House. With policy and capital moving in the same direction, the $80,000 level wasn’t immediately given back the same day.
The third layer is the contrast in the macro picture. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first time since 2023; the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25%, a 31-year high; and the “CLARITY Act” failed in the Senate 49:50. With three pieces of bad news hitting at once, Bitcoin still climbed.
My view: this move looks more like a “bad news fully priced in + shorts being overly crowded” type of repair, rather than a trend reversal. Liquidating $192 million is enough to push a 5% gain, which suggests there’s thin supply overhead—but it also suggests there’s thin demand support below. The area around $82,000–$82,300 has repeatedly capped price since May, and the 365-day moving average is at $81,700.
So let me ask you one thing: if the October FOMC raises rates again, would you add to your positions or cut them?
#Bitcoin_breaks_above_the_80,000_mark
The first layer is derivatives. Data from Coinglass shows that roughly $192 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within an hour, including $183 million in short positions. Over 24 hours, short liquidations totaled about $238 million, and the total liquidation of shorts across the entire crypto market exceeded $470 million. In other words, the vast majority of liquidations came from shorts—this is a classic short squeeze, not fresh money flowing in. FxPro’s Kuptsikevich put it plainly: this is position adjustment, not a change in fundamentals.
The second layer is fundamentals. On September 18, U.S. spot ETF $BTC saw net inflows of about $433 million, reversing the prior streak of continuous outflows. On September 17, the SEC granted an “innovation exemption” for tokenized securities trading platforms, and on the same day the CFTC submitted two crypto market rules to the White House. With policy and capital moving in the same direction, the $80,000 level wasn’t immediately given back the same day.
The third layer is the contrast in the macro picture. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first time since 2023; the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25%, a 31-year high; and the “CLARITY Act” failed in the Senate 49:50. With three pieces of bad news hitting at once, Bitcoin still climbed.
My view: this move looks more like a “bad news fully priced in + shorts being overly crowded” type of repair, rather than a trend reversal. Liquidating $192 million is enough to push a 5% gain, which suggests there’s thin supply overhead—but it also suggests there’s thin demand support below. The area around $82,000–$82,300 has repeatedly capped price since May, and the 365-day moving average is at $81,700.
So let me ask you one thing: if the October FOMC raises rates again, would you add to your positions or cut them?
#Bitcoin_breaks_above_the_80,000_mark