Deep Tide TechFlow message. According to the tide direction research, an UBS report dated September 18, 2026 states that the utilization rate of 12-inch wafers will rise from 84% in 2026 to 99% in 2028, reaching 103.7% in 2029. Demand for 12-inch wafers is projected to grow by 11% in 2026, 14% in 2027, and 13% in 2028. UBS believes that wafer manufacturers may need price hikes of 40% to 50% or more before they would consider expanding capacity; otherwise, severe shortages may occur after 2028. The firm gives Buy ratings to Shin-Etsu Chemical, GlobalWafers, and Siltronic, and a Neutral rating to SUMCO.

UBS believes that after a downturn cycle from 2023 to 2025, wafer manufacturers remain cautious about capacity expansion, and that price increases are a necessary condition for expanding capacity. The firm advises focusing on the wafer price trend and manufacturers’ expansion plans as key signals for judging supply-demand turning points.