SOL falls below 117 and stalls at 116.6: old support turns into resistance pressure — I won’t chase a rebound first
My stance is defensive; I’m temporarily out of the market. I just checked Binance Plaza’s Trending Topics: ZETA moving to Solana is still on the list, but that’s a governance vote I’ve already discussed in this account. The past six hours’ Most Searched is mainly about ARB, PEPE, FIL, BTC, etc.; SOL isn’t trending. In Binance News, Research, and OTC’s public content, as well as Solana Foundation’s engineering weekly reports, central bank/regulators/ETFs, and corporate disclosures, I couldn’t find any new project incident or institutional-fund event that reliably explains the SOL pullback within this hour. Don’t force old items—like the 250-millisecond slot progress, the ZETA migration, or macro themes—into a “just happened” bearish catalyst. The core of this piece is the recent price and volume changes, and I won’t attach unrelated hot tags.
OKX shows the SOL perpetual record around $116.62, with 24-hour high/low of $119.96 and $110.98. At 10:30 Beijing time, the full 15-minute candle: high $118.07, close $117.85, about 98,600 SOL traded. At 10:45, it dropped from $117.85 to $116.89: low $116.37, about 309,400 SOL traded. At 11:00, it closed again at $116.73 with about 261,900 SOL traded. At 11:15 it bounced back to $117.03, but its low was $116.30 and close $116.94. At 11:30 it was still oscillating between $116.5 and $117.03. After two bearish candles with volume expansion, it has not yet effectively reclaimed 117, which means the rebound can’t be confirmed.
Funding rate is about +0.01%, open interest around 3.165 million SOL, and notional around $369 million. Positive funding and open interest can’t independently reveal who is actively closing positions, so you can’t conclude that institutions have already bottom-picked based on this alone.
Recapping my 09:20 public plan: I required 117.2—117.6 to hold. Only after the 15-minute candle re-closed above 118.45 and the next candle held above 118.1 would I use at most 1.5% of principal to try a long. The intraday high touched 118.07, but it never reached 118.45; later the retreat level at 116.8 was also touched. The original plan had no entry trigger, so I absolutely won’t write it as actual buying or stop-loss profit. Now 116.3—116.5 is the near-term observation zone, and 117.2—117.6 is the old support turned into resistance pressure. The market has already reflected a drop from the high bounce back to 119.96 and sitting below 117. If the rebound shrinks in volume and then breaks 116.2, it’s more appropriate to keep waiting for the first “clean” pullback entry rather than forcing it.
If it were my own trading: my current participation is 0; the bias is neutral-to-bearish, but I wouldn’t short near 116.6. Only if 116.2—116.6 produces two consecutive 15-minute candles without making a new low, followed by volume expansion and a close back above 117.25, and the next candle remains above 117, would I use up to 1% spot principal to try a long. Targets are 117.8—118.1 and 118.5—119; halve the first target. After entering, if it falls back to 116.55, I cut the position by half. If the 15-minute candle closes below 116.1, I close the remaining position. If it first breaks through 116.2 and the retest at 116.8 is still rejected, I cancel the long plan. Conversely, if it closes back above 118.45 with volume and then re-traces to 117.8 and holds, I would acknowledge that the short-term weakness judgment was overturned. Keep the position light and ensure you can exit; don’t treat “it dropped a lot” as a reason to enter.
$SOL
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is defensive; I’m temporarily out of the market. I just checked Binance Plaza’s Trending Topics: ZETA moving to Solana is still on the list, but that’s a governance vote I’ve already discussed in this account. The past six hours’ Most Searched is mainly about ARB, PEPE, FIL, BTC, etc.; SOL isn’t trending. In Binance News, Research, and OTC’s public content, as well as Solana Foundation’s engineering weekly reports, central bank/regulators/ETFs, and corporate disclosures, I couldn’t find any new project incident or institutional-fund event that reliably explains the SOL pullback within this hour. Don’t force old items—like the 250-millisecond slot progress, the ZETA migration, or macro themes—into a “just happened” bearish catalyst. The core of this piece is the recent price and volume changes, and I won’t attach unrelated hot tags.
OKX shows the SOL perpetual record around $116.62, with 24-hour high/low of $119.96 and $110.98. At 10:30 Beijing time, the full 15-minute candle: high $118.07, close $117.85, about 98,600 SOL traded. At 10:45, it dropped from $117.85 to $116.89: low $116.37, about 309,400 SOL traded. At 11:00, it closed again at $116.73 with about 261,900 SOL traded. At 11:15 it bounced back to $117.03, but its low was $116.30 and close $116.94. At 11:30 it was still oscillating between $116.5 and $117.03. After two bearish candles with volume expansion, it has not yet effectively reclaimed 117, which means the rebound can’t be confirmed.
Funding rate is about +0.01%, open interest around 3.165 million SOL, and notional around $369 million. Positive funding and open interest can’t independently reveal who is actively closing positions, so you can’t conclude that institutions have already bottom-picked based on this alone.
Recapping my 09:20 public plan: I required 117.2—117.6 to hold. Only after the 15-minute candle re-closed above 118.45 and the next candle held above 118.1 would I use at most 1.5% of principal to try a long. The intraday high touched 118.07, but it never reached 118.45; later the retreat level at 116.8 was also touched. The original plan had no entry trigger, so I absolutely won’t write it as actual buying or stop-loss profit. Now 116.3—116.5 is the near-term observation zone, and 117.2—117.6 is the old support turned into resistance pressure. The market has already reflected a drop from the high bounce back to 119.96 and sitting below 117. If the rebound shrinks in volume and then breaks 116.2, it’s more appropriate to keep waiting for the first “clean” pullback entry rather than forcing it.
If it were my own trading: my current participation is 0; the bias is neutral-to-bearish, but I wouldn’t short near 116.6. Only if 116.2—116.6 produces two consecutive 15-minute candles without making a new low, followed by volume expansion and a close back above 117.25, and the next candle remains above 117, would I use up to 1% spot principal to try a long. Targets are 117.8—118.1 and 118.5—119; halve the first target. After entering, if it falls back to 116.55, I cut the position by half. If the 15-minute candle closes below 116.1, I close the remaining position. If it first breaks through 116.2 and the retest at 116.8 is still rejected, I cancel the long plan. Conversely, if it closes back above 118.45 with volume and then re-traces to 117.8 and holds, I would acknowledge that the short-term weakness judgment was overturned. Keep the position light and ensure you can exit; don’t treat “it dropped a lot” as a reason to enter.
$SOL
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
