September 22 morning news | Bitcoin breaks through 87,000 for the first time in eight months; market cap returns to 2.76 trillion; $500 million worth of shorts wiped out overnight
First, look at the price
Current BTC price is around 85,900–86,300. At 4:20 a.m. today, Bitcoin surged past 87,000, briefly touching 87,010 and setting a new high since late January. It then pulled back slightly to trade around 86,000 and fluctuated; in the past 24 hours, it is up about 5.25%–5.84%. Ethereum broke above 2,800 and is currently at 2,802, up about 5.96% intraday. BNB broke above 800, and Dogecoin jumped more than 14%.
Counting from the 74,965 low that was hit after last Wednesday’s FOMC rate hike took effect, the market rebounded nearly $12,000 over five trading days. The last time BTC was above 86,000 was at the end of January this year.
My biggest take these days is: the market treats rate hikes as “all the bad news is already out,” and treats the Clarity Act being rejected as “taking another route.” Oil prices have fallen for four straight days; ETFs saw $433 million flow in on the day; and in one night, $500 million worth of shorts were blown up. Three days ago it was still about holding the line at 76,000—today it’s already standing at the doorstep of 87,000.
Probability assessment: I think the upside probability is slightly higher, but 87,000–90,000 is a dense cluster of trapped positions since January of this year, and it won’t break through in one go.
Key variables today: ① Whether 87,000–88,000 can hold steady on increased volume ② Dense remarks by Fed officials (Goolsbee, Musa lem, and Kashkari have already signaled further rate hikes) ③ Whether a historic meeting between the U.S. and Iran can happen during the U.S.-Iran talks
Why do I think the upside probability is higher? Three reasons:
First, oil prices have fallen for four straight days, and inflation expectations are cooling off.
Brent crude falls below the $100 mark, closing at $100.34 per barrel, down 3.4%. WTI falls 4.5% to close at $95.78 per barrel, the lowest in two weeks. The market is betting that Trump and Iran’s president may meet during the UN General Assembly, and Saudi-damaged oil pipelines are gradually recovering.
Trump said clearly on Sunday that he is “maybe open” to meeting with Iran’s president during the UN General Assembly. Iran’s President Pezeshkian will speak on Wednesday, and Trump will speak on Tuesday. Oil prices falling → inflation expectations cooling → rate-hike pressure easing → risk assets rising—this chain has finally started to move in a positive direction.
Second, $433 million flowed into ETFs in a single day, and listed companies shifted from net selling to net buying.
On September 18, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows were $433 million. Fidelity’s FBTC had a $310.7 million inflow in a single day, while BlackRock’s IBIT saw $108.4 million. Total ETF net assets rebounded to $102.53 billion.
Even at the listed-company level, there’s a shift. Global listed companies’ Bitcoin allocation moved from net selling to net buying, totaling $183 million. Strive spent $107.7 million to add 1,355 BTC at an average price of $79,475; total holdings increased to 26,355 BTC. Strategy also resumed adding after two weeks.
Third, the shorts were squeezed—an $505 million short position was forced to close.
In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the entire market were close to $600 million, of which shorts accounted for as much as $505 million. After price broke through the key resistance at 84,000, shorts were forced to close, buying that further boosted the rally. Technicals also confirm—Bitcoin’s weekly close is back above the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks; historically, this is often seen as a signal for a bear-market bottom.
Sector 1: Macro news backdrop
1. The Fed: After the rate hike lands, officials turn collectively hawkish
The FOMC unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate hike to 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike since 2023. Of the 18 participants, 16 expect at least one more rate hike within the year.
On Monday of this week, three regional Federal Reserve presidents delivered consecutive remarks with a consistent, hawkish tone:
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee clearly said the supply shock has become “more frequent, more severe, and lasts longer,” and “further rate hikes are the only way out.”
Musa lem, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, believes current rates of 3.75%–4% are still on the “easing side.” If tightening doesn’t happen further, the likelihood of inflation being significantly above 2% in 18 months is higher. He argues for raising rates “gradually, but earlier.”
Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, pointed out that inflation pressures have spread to the services sector. “If you wait too long to hike, you may face the risk that inflation becomes deeply entrenched.”
At least eight more Fed officials will speak this week. The odds of a rate hike in October are currently around 50%.
2. Geopolitics: A U.S.-Iran meeting at the UNGA is possible, and oil prices have fallen four straight days
Trump said he may be willing to meet Iran’s president during the UN General Assembly. Iran’s president Pezeshkian plans to deliver remarks at the UNGA on Wednesday.
Even the Saudi-damaged oil pipeline is gradually recovering. Oil tanker tracking data shows that the day before, Saudi Aramco loaded 7 supertankers carrying a total of 14 million barrels of crude in the Gulf. Over the past six days, Saudi crude daily passage through the Strait of Hormuz was about 2.9 million barrels.
But an analyst at oil broker PVM reminds that the market is only “waiting for a breakout,” which doesn’t mean risks are already gone.
3. Traditional markets: U.S. stocks mixed; crypto-related stocks rallied across the board
Last Friday, U.S. stocks were mixed: the Nasdaq rose 0.39%, the S&P 500 rose 0.17%, and the Dow fell 0.19%. Chip stocks remain strong—SanDisk surged 10.99% and Micron rose 3.92%.
Crypto-related stocks are the biggest highlight—Strategy is up more than 13%, Coinbase and American Bitcoin are up about 11%, and Robinhood is up nearly 9%.
Liquidity/positioning
ETFs: On September 18, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows were $433 million; Ethereum ETFs saw synchronous net inflows of about $143.8 million. Combined over two days, inflows were about $593 million.
Binance contract activity: Total trading volume for Binance contracts in the past 24 hours is about $49.27 billion. BTCUSDT perps leading with $10.64 billion, followed by ETHUSDT perps at $7.16 billion. Binance futures monthly trading volume has surged to $1.6 trillion, the highest level this year. SanDisk (SNDK) U.S. stock perps are at $3.38 billion, while XAU (gold) perps are at $2.57 billion. ETH futures open interest has increased by about 37% since September, rising to the highest level in nine months—around $6.58 billion.
Capital flows: Within crypto—altcoins broadly outperform BTC and ETH; DOGE is up over 14%, PEPE is up 22%, and XRP is also rising. Across asset classes—ETFs are seeing renewed inflows, and institutional buying is back. TradFi perps—AI chips and precious metals continue to attract capital.
Institutional & capital flows
① The whale sold BTC, bought ETH, and staked—rotating positions totaling $86.5 million.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, over the past 5 days a certain mysterious whale sold 1,107 BTC on Hyperliquid (worth $86.76 million), then bought 34,422 ETH (worth $86.5 million) and staked it in full. When this whale switched from BTC to ETH at new BTC highs, it’s a signal worth paying attention to—capital is rotating within the sector, not retreating completely.
② Strive invests $107.7 million to add 1,355 BTC.
Bitcoin reserve company Strive announced on September 21 that it bought 1,355 BTC last week at an average price of $79,475, bringing total holdings to 26,355 BTC. In the same period, cash reserves increased by $25.4 million to $229.6 million.
③ A certain whale has a floating profit of over $30.78 million on a $52.35 million long position.
According to monitoring, a “smart money” address went long BTC and ETH in early July with $85.36 million; its unrealized profit is already over $30.78 million. Holding from early July until now—this rally has made early longs extremely profitable.
④ Listed-company Bitcoin allocation flips from net selling to net buying of $183 million.
According to SoSoValue data, last week global listed companies’ Bitcoin allocation flipped from net selling in the prior week to net buying totaling $183 million. Strategy resumed adding after two weeks, and Strive continues to increase its bets.
Hotspot trend
① The SEC and CFTC take over the regulatory baton, and an innovation exemption framework is rolled out
After the Clarity Act was rejected, the SEC and CFTC accelerated regulatory reform within their existing authority. The SEC formally approved an “innovation exemption” framework, allowing pilot tokenized equity trading on certain blockchain venues, with a five-year transition period. The CFTC submitted its crypto regulatory proposal to the White House for review, and at the same time issued “no-action” exemption arrangements for passive software providers.
Mapping to BTC: The bearish impact from the bill being rejected has already been digested by the market; regulators are pushing forward on a new path. Michael Saylor has also publicly called on the industry to accelerate product rollout using the existing framework, rather than waiting for legislation from Congress.
② The U.S. Department of Justice investigates whether Binance violated Iran sanctions
The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating whether Binance failed to prevent some trades on its platform, violating U.S. sanctions orders against Iran. The news was first reported by Bloomberg.
Mapping to BTC: Binance is the world’s largest crypto exchange, and the investigation outcome could affect its operations and user confidence. Currently, the investigation is at an early stage, so the immediate impact on price is limited, but if it escalates later, it could trigger short-term volatility.
③ PEP E coin surges 22%, meme coins make a strong comeback
Pepe rockets 22% in 24 hours, leading the rally ahead of Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and XRP. Dogecoin is up over 14%, and the altcoin season index has risen to 49.
Mapping to BTC: A surge in meme coins shows market risk appetite is high and retail money is pouring in. But meme-coin rallies usually come and go quickly. If the meme-coin sector starts to correct, it could drag overall market sentiment.
Sector 2: Technicals
BTC: Market sentiment has entered the “greed” zone. On the 4-hour timeframe, price was pushed from around 81,000 to 87,010. After breaking the key resistance at 84,000, it accelerated upward. The weekly close is back above the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. The major uptrend for longs on the chart remains strong, but MACD’s bullish momentum is gradually shrinking. The KDJ indicator has turned down from high levels—signs of weakening short-term upward momentum are already appearing, and the market likely needs consolidation to digest profits. The first resistance zone above is 87,000–88,000—after touching 87,010 in the early hours, it pulled back, suggesting the supply is not light in that area. Only when it holds 88,000 on volume can it open the path to 90,000. Below, 84,000–84,500 is the post-breakout pullback confirmation area, and 82,000 is strong support. The larger structure has turned bullish, but 87,000 won’t break through all at once.
ETH: Breaks above 2,800 and sets a new high since late January of this year. Binance ETH futures open interest has increased by about 37% since September, rising to the highest level in nine months. Resistance is at 2,850–2,900; support is at 2,700–2,750.
SOL: Following broader market strength, it rose more than 11% to above $112, hitting a new high since January. Resistance is at 115–120; support is at 105–108.
DOGE: Spikes more than 14% to $0.10, leading the meme coin sector. Resistance is at 0.11–0.12; support is at 0.09–0.095.
Nasdaq 100: Last Friday rose 0.39%. Chip stocks remain strong—SanDisk is up nearly 11%.
S&P 500: Last Friday gained 0.17%, not far from its all-time highs.
Gold: Spot gold rose 0.84% to $4,378 per ounce. Oil prices falling eased inflation concerns, providing support for gold.
Crude oil: WTI falls 4.5% to close at $95.78 per barrel; Brent falls 3.4% to close at $100.34 per barrel, marking the fourth consecutive day of declines.
Outlook for today
Core judgment: I think the upside probability is slightly higher, but 87,000–90,000 is a dense cluster of trapped positions since January of this year, and it won’t break through in one go.
Three scenarios:
Scenario 1 (highest probability, ~45%): BTC ranges and consolidates between 84,500 and 87,500, digesting a $12,000 gain over five days. 87,000 needs repeated tests before it can hold.
Scenario 2 (probability ~30%): A meeting between the U.S. and Iran happens at the UNGA, ETF inflows continue, and rotation into altcoins spreads; BTC breaks out with volume and holds above 87,000, then reaches 90,000.
Scenario 3 (probability ~25%): Fed officials continue to turn hawkish; 87,000 is capped and BTC pulls back to 84,000–84,500.
Key variables: This week, at least eight Fed officials will speak, plus PMI data, and whether a historic meeting between the U.S. and Iran can happen. Whether 87,000 can hold depends on whether these variables “give face” to the market.
Trading ideas (for entertainment only, not investment advice)
My take: Bias is bullish, but I won’t chase before 87,000 is broken.
From 74,965 to 87,010—over five days it gained $12,000. 87,000 is a dense trapped zone since January this year. If you chase in and it pulls back to 84,000, you’ll be trapped for $3,000 straight.
Long-biased setup (more cautious—wait for a pullback): If BTC pulls back to 84,000–84,500 without breaking and stabilizes, go long with a light position. Stop-loss: 83,000. Target: 87,000–88,000.
Long-biased setup (more aggressive—chasing the breakout): If BTC holds firmly at 87,500 with 15-minute timeframe confirmation, go long with a light position. Stop-loss: 86,500. Targets: 89,000–90,000.
Short setup (left-leaning, high risk): If BTC rebounds to 87,000–87,500 with clearly reduced volume and can’t push higher, try shorting with a light position. Stop-loss: 88,000. Target: 85,000–84,500.
Risk warning: 87,000 is a dense cluster of trapped positions since January of this year, and it won’t break through in one go. This week there are many Fed officials speaking in quick succession—Goolsbee, Musa lem, and Kashkari have already turned hawkish as a group. Any hawkish statement that surprises to the upside could interrupt this rally. The DOJ investigation into Binance is still developing. Manage your position size.
In summary:
Oil prices fall for four straight days; ETFs saw $433 million pour in on the day. Shorts are liquidated for $500 million. Bitcoin breaks above 87,000 for the first time in 8 months. Upside probability is slightly higher, but 87,000–90,000 is the trapped zone from January—if it can’t get through, it’s range-bound; once it does, it’s a new uptrend.
Respect the market—tell the truth. Chat in the comments