Everyone is shouting that the bull market is back, but I’ll pour some cold water: this BTC rebound toward the 87K area—based on short-term signals, the probability of a pullback is far greater than the chance of continuing to surge upward.
Three reasons:
① The move is too fast, and the volume has already exposed it. In 6 days, it rallied from 75K to 87K—up 15%—but over the past 24 hours, the daily K-line trading volume has dropped sharply. The day before was about 32,000 BTC, and the next day fell to only around 2,000 BTC. This is a classic case of a late-stage rally on shrinking volume. Without sustained buying support, 87K is just a paper tiger.
② The 87K–88K range is a dense trapped-position zone. Near the last peak, a large amount of stop-loss orders and panic-selling orders piled up. Once the price enters this area, profit-taking and trapped-holder relief selling can both rush out. Today, when it touched 87395, it immediately dropped back to 85500—already showing the issue.
③ Leveraged longs are crowded, and any reversal turns into stampede. After a series of consecutive big rises, perpetual contract long leverage has accumulated, and the funding rate is relatively high. Under this kind of structure, you don’t need any major bad news—a single 4% bearish candle can trigger a chain liquidation and quickly smash the price down to 80K or even lower.
So my view: the probability that the short-term will pull back and consolidate in the 80K–82K range is much higher than the probability of directly breaking above 90K. The medium-term trend hasn’t broken, but don’t chase longs at 87K.
Do you agree? Tell me your reasons
$BTC #观点 #蓝桉VS释怀鸟
Three reasons:
① The move is too fast, and the volume has already exposed it. In 6 days, it rallied from 75K to 87K—up 15%—but over the past 24 hours, the daily K-line trading volume has dropped sharply. The day before was about 32,000 BTC, and the next day fell to only around 2,000 BTC. This is a classic case of a late-stage rally on shrinking volume. Without sustained buying support, 87K is just a paper tiger.
② The 87K–88K range is a dense trapped-position zone. Near the last peak, a large amount of stop-loss orders and panic-selling orders piled up. Once the price enters this area, profit-taking and trapped-holder relief selling can both rush out. Today, when it touched 87395, it immediately dropped back to 85500—already showing the issue.
③ Leveraged longs are crowded, and any reversal turns into stampede. After a series of consecutive big rises, perpetual contract long leverage has accumulated, and the funding rate is relatively high. Under this kind of structure, you don’t need any major bad news—a single 4% bearish candle can trigger a chain liquidation and quickly smash the price down to 80K or even lower.
So my view: the probability that the short-term will pull back and consolidate in the 80K–82K range is much higher than the probability of directly breaking above 90K. The medium-term trend hasn’t broken, but don’t chase longs at 87K.
Do you agree? Tell me your reasons
$BTC #观点 #蓝桉VS释怀鸟