The China-U.S. leaders’ meeting from September 23 to 25—what exactly is the market waiting for?
What the market may be truly trading this time isn’t just a single page of a “big agreement,” but whether China-U.S. relations can continue to stay stable.
First, it’s about trade and tariffs. There is still room for the current pause in trade and economic friction between the two sides to be extended. The market’s biggest concern is whether the parties will continue to reduce the risk of escalation, and whether there will be new arrangements in areas such as agricultural products and investment.
Second, it’s about rare earths and critical minerals. Rare earths are tied to the automotive, defense, semiconductor, and new energy industry chains. If both sides send signals of stable supply, it will have a direct impact on risk premia across the global supply chain.
Third, it’s about technology and AI. This AI may become a new area for communication, but competition over core technologies won’t disappear because of one meeting. A more realistic direction is dialogue on AI safety, risk management, and related areas.
Fourth, it’s about global risk appetite. If the meeting sends signals of easing, stability, and continued negotiations, the first beneficiaries may be China concept stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and Asian tech assets; only later could the effect transmit through the U.S. stock market, the dollar, and global liquidity—reaching higher-beta assets such as BTC.
So for the crypto market, what’s really worth watching isn’t whether the meeting will directly turn into a bullish catalyst for BTC, but this chain:
China-U.S. relations easing → trade risk declining → global risk appetite improving → tech stocks strengthening → risk appetite spreading for capital → BTC getting external liquidity support.
Conversely, if new frictions emerge in issues such as tariffs, technology restrictions, or rare earths, the market may once again raise the safe-haven risk premium.
Therefore, what’s most worth focusing on in this meeting is the “expectation gap”: the market has already priced in part of the easing expectations in advance, and what truly affects the market is whether the final information released exceeds those expectations.
What the market may be truly trading this time isn’t just a single page of a “big agreement,” but whether China-U.S. relations can continue to stay stable.
First, it’s about trade and tariffs. There is still room for the current pause in trade and economic friction between the two sides to be extended. The market’s biggest concern is whether the parties will continue to reduce the risk of escalation, and whether there will be new arrangements in areas such as agricultural products and investment.
Second, it’s about rare earths and critical minerals. Rare earths are tied to the automotive, defense, semiconductor, and new energy industry chains. If both sides send signals of stable supply, it will have a direct impact on risk premia across the global supply chain.
Third, it’s about technology and AI. This AI may become a new area for communication, but competition over core technologies won’t disappear because of one meeting. A more realistic direction is dialogue on AI safety, risk management, and related areas.
Fourth, it’s about global risk appetite. If the meeting sends signals of easing, stability, and continued negotiations, the first beneficiaries may be China concept stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and Asian tech assets; only later could the effect transmit through the U.S. stock market, the dollar, and global liquidity—reaching higher-beta assets such as BTC.
So for the crypto market, what’s really worth watching isn’t whether the meeting will directly turn into a bullish catalyst for BTC, but this chain:
China-U.S. relations easing → trade risk declining → global risk appetite improving → tech stocks strengthening → risk appetite spreading for capital → BTC getting external liquidity support.
Conversely, if new frictions emerge in issues such as tariffs, technology restrictions, or rare earths, the market may once again raise the safe-haven risk premium.
Therefore, what’s most worth focusing on in this meeting is the “expectation gap”: the market has already priced in part of the easing expectations in advance, and what truly affects the market is whether the final information released exceeds those expectations.