Barclays said oil prices could rise 50% before the market reaches balance if current conditions persist. According to Sina Finance, analyst Amarpreet Singh wrote in a September 21 report that the disruption to Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline earlier this month highlighted the risks facing the Middle East's slow recovery in oil output.

Singh wrote that inventory and consumption indicators show prices still have a long way to go before supply and demand converge, adding that this increases the risk of the bank raising its price forecasts. He said the estimated net supply loss from the Middle East is currently 4.7 million barrels per day, compared with 12 million to 13 million barrels per day at the start of the war, while inventory buffers are much smaller now.

Barclays expects Brent to reach $95 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, followed by $90, $85, $85 and $80 a barrel in the next four quarters.