Fear and Greed Index: 79 — Extreme Greed. In my case, when I see this reading, I generally reduce positions rather than add.
Let me show everyone a very plain set of numbers:
On September 16, Fear and Greed was 52 (Neutral) — BTC 75,560.
On September 18, Fear and Greed was 57 — BTC 76,385.
On September 21, Fear and Greed was 71 — BTC 81,741.
On September 22, Fear and Greed was 79 (Extreme Greed) — BTC 86,429.
In six days, sentiment went from Neutral straight to Extreme Greed, and the price rose 14%.
I’ve seen this kind of slope a lot. The sentiment indicator isn’t a buy/sell signal, but it is a position-management signal.
The meaning of a reading of 79 isn’t “it’s about to drop,” but rather “people entering right now have very low tolerance.”
Why is tolerance low? Because at high levels, sentiment often coincides with three things at the same time: leverage is maxed out, retail traders step in as buyers, and the news flow is entirely positive. Today, all three arrive, without missing a beat.
On the derivatives side, the market just added $2.0 billion in leverage. In the last 24 hours, the entire network’s futures open interest for ETH rose 6.59% to $36.75 billion.
On social media, it has changed from last week’s despair to full screens of “targeting 100,000.”
There’s another detail worth mentioning: Bitcoin’s all-time high was 126,080, which appeared last October. Now it’s a bit above 86,000, leaving still 31% of room before the ATH. So, strictly speaking, this is a recovery after a deep pullback—not a new-high行情 (a new high trend). The trading logic for the two is completely different. In a recovery, what you need to do is take profits in batches. In a new-high trend, you can hold.
Some analysts say this move still has another 2 to 4 weeks of upside, after which it will enter an overbought zone that needs to cool off. I basically agree with that view—but pay attention: the second half is the real point.
When it’s Extreme Greed, I never ask “how much more can it go up?” I only ask one thing: if tomorrow it drops straight back to 80,000, can my position withstand it?
If you can, hold it. If you can’t, sell a bit first. That’s it—simple.
Let me show everyone a very plain set of numbers:
On September 16, Fear and Greed was 52 (Neutral) — BTC 75,560.
On September 18, Fear and Greed was 57 — BTC 76,385.
On September 21, Fear and Greed was 71 — BTC 81,741.
On September 22, Fear and Greed was 79 (Extreme Greed) — BTC 86,429.
In six days, sentiment went from Neutral straight to Extreme Greed, and the price rose 14%.
I’ve seen this kind of slope a lot. The sentiment indicator isn’t a buy/sell signal, but it is a position-management signal.
The meaning of a reading of 79 isn’t “it’s about to drop,” but rather “people entering right now have very low tolerance.”
Why is tolerance low? Because at high levels, sentiment often coincides with three things at the same time: leverage is maxed out, retail traders step in as buyers, and the news flow is entirely positive. Today, all three arrive, without missing a beat.
On the derivatives side, the market just added $2.0 billion in leverage. In the last 24 hours, the entire network’s futures open interest for ETH rose 6.59% to $36.75 billion.
On social media, it has changed from last week’s despair to full screens of “targeting 100,000.”
There’s another detail worth mentioning: Bitcoin’s all-time high was 126,080, which appeared last October. Now it’s a bit above 86,000, leaving still 31% of room before the ATH. So, strictly speaking, this is a recovery after a deep pullback—not a new-high行情 (a new high trend). The trading logic for the two is completely different. In a recovery, what you need to do is take profits in batches. In a new-high trend, you can hold.
Some analysts say this move still has another 2 to 4 weeks of upside, after which it will enter an overbought zone that needs to cool off. I basically agree with that view—but pay attention: the second half is the real point.
When it’s Extreme Greed, I never ask “how much more can it go up?” I only ask one thing: if tomorrow it drops straight back to 80,000, can my position withstand it?
If you can, hold it. If you can’t, sell a bit first. That’s it—simple.