Glassnode’s latest on-chain monitoring shows that Bitcoin has now entered a dense supply zone in the $83,000 to $86,000 range. Within this zone, holders’ cost basis is highly concentrated around $85,000—representing the largest accumulated options-chi... (largest cost basis concentration) formed over the past six months. This indicates that the current price has already reached the breakeven line for a large number of positions, and expectations for profit-taking sell pressure are rapidly heating up. If there is no incremental capital pushing the price higher, this area is likely to become a key resistance level for the next phase, potentially turning into a local top.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) has risen by 7.6% over a recent period to roughly $156 billion. Although shorts are closing positions, new long leverage continues to flow in. CoinDesk derivatives data shows that among the OI increase over the past 24 hours, longs account for more than 70%, suggesting that the current rally is driven more by forced buying in the derivatives market rather than sustained spot-market support. The risk from leverage build-up is accumulating quickly.
Market sentiment is also heating up rapidly; the Fear and Greed Index is currently at 77, placing it in the greed range. Many analysts tracking on-chain data have already started taking profits, believing the persistence of the current upward momentum is questionable. Based on historical data, once this index enters the above-70 greed range, the probability that Bitcoin will see a pullback within the next 30 days exceeds 60%. The current overheated sentiment has already deviated from the rhythm supported by fundamentals.
In addition, the recent net inflow to exchanges on-chain has begun to rise, indicating that some long-term holders have started to reduce their positions, which also confirms that the sell pressure above $85,000 is being gradually released. If spot buyers fail to step in and absorb the overhead sell pressure in time, any upside move driven by leverage could quickly reverse, even triggering a chain liquidation that further amplifies the downside. If you are chasing long positions, you should be alert to the risk of liquidity retracement.
At present, Bitcoin ETF fund flow data has not shown any clear signs of slowing. If the ETFs continue to attract incremental capital, they may be able to absorb the sell pressure above and help push the price to break through the supply zone; otherwise, the probability of a further near-term pullback will increase.