In this round of October pricing, the market has already put the “hike of 25 basis points” on the main track.
According to a BlockBeats report dated September 22, based on CME’s “FedWatch” data, the current probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 46.9%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 53.1%. This feels more like a reminder to traders: don’t just focus on the price in the short term—focus first on how interest rate expectations will move.
Market interpretation is somewhat bearish for risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
If, going forward, inflation, employment data, and statements from Fed officials continue to push expectations higher, volatility for risk assets is usually going to be harder to endure; if the probability falls back, market sentiment may loosen more quickly too. Are you more focused on the possibility of a continued rate hike in October, or on a return to holding steady?
Figure 1: Fed’s October rate-hike expectations heat up · Source: partial screenshot of the page
Image source: https://www.theblockbeats.info/flash/368304
According to a BlockBeats report dated September 22, based on CME’s “FedWatch” data, the current probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 46.9%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 53.1%. This feels more like a reminder to traders: don’t just focus on the price in the short term—focus first on how interest rate expectations will move.
Market interpretation is somewhat bearish for risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
If, going forward, inflation, employment data, and statements from Fed officials continue to push expectations higher, volatility for risk assets is usually going to be harder to endure; if the probability falls back, market sentiment may loosen more quickly too. Are you more focused on the possibility of a continued rate hike in October, or on a return to holding steady?
Figure 1: Fed’s October rate-hike expectations heat up · Source: partial screenshot of the page
Image source: https://www.theblockbeats.info/flash/368304
