【If NEAR drops back to 3 dollars tomorrow, can you hold up?】
Over the past week, NEAR has risen 56%—in a week. Not a month, not a year, but seven days.
Honestly, when I saw that number, I froze for a moment. Not because it went up, but because it went up way too fast. What does 56% even mean? If you bought last month, your account would look red to the point of blinding—purple with light. But my experience from the time I got rich in 2017 tells me this: the speed at which your account turns from red to green is directly proportional to how quickly you lose it all back. How good it feels when you’re up is exactly how desperate it becomes when it falls back.
Right now, the FNG index is 70, which falls in the greed zone. The weekly average is only 62, which means market sentiment is heating up very quickly this week. A 7-day 56% rally combined with this sentiment index—no matter how you look at it, it looks like a short-term overheating signal. On the chart, it’s at 4.03 dollars; support is 3.84; resistance is 4.53. It’s just one step away from the resistance level. Can it break through? It can. But what happens after it breaks through?
Recently, NEAR has gotten a boost thanks to Zcash swap flow—so the data really does look good. Intents have accumulated to nearly 30 billion. The demand for privacy-coin swaps and transfers is real; I don’t doubt that. But the question is—can this demand actually support the current price? Or is it just giving this round of speculation an excuse?
I’m not bearish on the NEAR project itself. In 2021, I missed out on a big move because I spent every day watching it from the sidelines as if it would keep falling, and I ended up looking totally foolish. I’m only reminding you: a 7-day rise of 56% is not a normal pattern. This kind of speed either means the fundamentals genuinely changed, or it’s a short-term move driven by sentiment. If it’s the latter, when you rush in now, are you catching someone else’s chips—or are you racing against the trend?
I’ve seen too many people go all-in at times like this, and then when it genuinely dips back to support, they completely break down. It’s not that the project is bad—it’s that position management is the problem. What’s your current leverage/position size? Did you leave some “bullets” for yourself? If it really pulls back below 3.84, can you hold up?
Putting it plainly, what does this mean in practice? A short-term surge that’s too large implies that someone is selling and someone is buying. If the person getting stuck holding the bag takes on too heavy a position, then any random negative catalyst could make you cut losses and leave. This isn’t a question of whether the project is good or bad. It’s whether you can hold on.
To be honest, even I’m hesitating right now about whether to board the train. My hands are itching to jump in—that’s true. But the lessons from 2021 are also real.
What’s your mindset right now? Are you willing to chase this move? Or have you already prepared for what you’ll do if it pulls back to 3.84?
Over the past week, NEAR has risen 56%—in a week. Not a month, not a year, but seven days.
Honestly, when I saw that number, I froze for a moment. Not because it went up, but because it went up way too fast. What does 56% even mean? If you bought last month, your account would look red to the point of blinding—purple with light. But my experience from the time I got rich in 2017 tells me this: the speed at which your account turns from red to green is directly proportional to how quickly you lose it all back. How good it feels when you’re up is exactly how desperate it becomes when it falls back.
Right now, the FNG index is 70, which falls in the greed zone. The weekly average is only 62, which means market sentiment is heating up very quickly this week. A 7-day 56% rally combined with this sentiment index—no matter how you look at it, it looks like a short-term overheating signal. On the chart, it’s at 4.03 dollars; support is 3.84; resistance is 4.53. It’s just one step away from the resistance level. Can it break through? It can. But what happens after it breaks through?
Recently, NEAR has gotten a boost thanks to Zcash swap flow—so the data really does look good. Intents have accumulated to nearly 30 billion. The demand for privacy-coin swaps and transfers is real; I don’t doubt that. But the question is—can this demand actually support the current price? Or is it just giving this round of speculation an excuse?
I’m not bearish on the NEAR project itself. In 2021, I missed out on a big move because I spent every day watching it from the sidelines as if it would keep falling, and I ended up looking totally foolish. I’m only reminding you: a 7-day rise of 56% is not a normal pattern. This kind of speed either means the fundamentals genuinely changed, or it’s a short-term move driven by sentiment. If it’s the latter, when you rush in now, are you catching someone else’s chips—or are you racing against the trend?
I’ve seen too many people go all-in at times like this, and then when it genuinely dips back to support, they completely break down. It’s not that the project is bad—it’s that position management is the problem. What’s your current leverage/position size? Did you leave some “bullets” for yourself? If it really pulls back below 3.84, can you hold up?
Putting it plainly, what does this mean in practice? A short-term surge that’s too large implies that someone is selling and someone is buying. If the person getting stuck holding the bag takes on too heavy a position, then any random negative catalyst could make you cut losses and leave. This isn’t a question of whether the project is good or bad. It’s whether you can hold on.
To be honest, even I’m hesitating right now about whether to board the train. My hands are itching to jump in—that’s true. But the lessons from 2021 are also real.
What’s your mindset right now? Are you willing to chase this move? Or have you already prepared for what you’ll do if it pulls back to 3.84?