【LINK Put this link here, and it brings me back to the version of myself who got trapped at the top in 2017】
In the first three days before May 19, 2021, the market was just like this—mainstream coins were rising quite a bit, sentiment was running hot, and FNG kept climbing every day. And then… *boom*, a big bearish candle taught you a lesson.
LINK feels like that right now.
In 7 days it’s up 10.8%, and over the past 24 hours it’s added another 2.8%—sounds great, right? But take a closer look: FNG is at 70, while the weekly average is only 62, which means sentiment is already hotter than usual by a noticeable margin. The question is: did volume keep up? If price is rising but volume isn’t, chances are it’s a bull trap.
My take: ➡️ Choppy-to-downward bias. Here are three reasons.
**Reason One: Unhealthy chip (position) structure**
LINK dropped 76% from its peak. Along the way, there were plenty of people who bought the dip. Now that it’s risen back to around the resistance at 13.42, what’s their first reaction? “Break even, then get out.” This selling pressure isn’t emotion—it’s math. If someone’s down 70%, do you think they’d stay put after getting a chance to get out at breakeven?
**Reason Two: BTC is dominating liquidity**
BTC accounts for 58.9%. This tells you the market’s money is basically all tied up in BTC. When liquidity is sucked into BTC, the mainstream coins’ upside becomes very passive. BTC doesn’t fall and LINK should be fine—but if BTC even slightly catches its breath, coins like LINK that track the move can fall faster than anyone.
**Reason Three: The business logic is a bit shaky**
Chainlink is indeed building oracles, and the ecosystem is there too. But honestly—its real-world rollout speed is much slower than what all the PPTs suggest. The market’s valuation has already priced in the “story” for the next three to five years. A 76% drop wasn’t the market “wrong”—it was that the previous rally was too crazy. Whether the current price can hold now depends on whether real money is coming in, not on shouting trade calls.
**When would I admit I’m wrong?**
Simple: if it breaks above 13.42 with a big surge in volume and holds there, then I’d be wrong. Rising on low volume is just playing games—only rising on high volume is the real signal.
Honestly, after writing all this, my hands are a little itchy too… What if it really breaks out? But the lesson from 2021 tells me: missing the move feels better than being stuck in a trap.
So what’s everyone’s mindset right now? Are you bold enough to get in this round? See you in the comments—next week we’ll reconcile the accounts.
In the first three days before May 19, 2021, the market was just like this—mainstream coins were rising quite a bit, sentiment was running hot, and FNG kept climbing every day. And then… *boom*, a big bearish candle taught you a lesson.
LINK feels like that right now.
In 7 days it’s up 10.8%, and over the past 24 hours it’s added another 2.8%—sounds great, right? But take a closer look: FNG is at 70, while the weekly average is only 62, which means sentiment is already hotter than usual by a noticeable margin. The question is: did volume keep up? If price is rising but volume isn’t, chances are it’s a bull trap.
My take: ➡️ Choppy-to-downward bias. Here are three reasons.
**Reason One: Unhealthy chip (position) structure**
LINK dropped 76% from its peak. Along the way, there were plenty of people who bought the dip. Now that it’s risen back to around the resistance at 13.42, what’s their first reaction? “Break even, then get out.” This selling pressure isn’t emotion—it’s math. If someone’s down 70%, do you think they’d stay put after getting a chance to get out at breakeven?
**Reason Two: BTC is dominating liquidity**
BTC accounts for 58.9%. This tells you the market’s money is basically all tied up in BTC. When liquidity is sucked into BTC, the mainstream coins’ upside becomes very passive. BTC doesn’t fall and LINK should be fine—but if BTC even slightly catches its breath, coins like LINK that track the move can fall faster than anyone.
**Reason Three: The business logic is a bit shaky**
Chainlink is indeed building oracles, and the ecosystem is there too. But honestly—its real-world rollout speed is much slower than what all the PPTs suggest. The market’s valuation has already priced in the “story” for the next three to five years. A 76% drop wasn’t the market “wrong”—it was that the previous rally was too crazy. Whether the current price can hold now depends on whether real money is coming in, not on shouting trade calls.
**When would I admit I’m wrong?**
Simple: if it breaks above 13.42 with a big surge in volume and holds there, then I’d be wrong. Rising on low volume is just playing games—only rising on high volume is the real signal.
Honestly, after writing all this, my hands are a little itchy too… What if it really breaks out? But the lesson from 2021 tells me: missing the move feels better than being stuck in a trap.
So what’s everyone’s mindset right now? Are you bold enough to get in this round? See you in the comments—next week we’ll reconcile the accounts.