XMR version info needs to be corrected: GUI 0.18.5.2 has already been released. After a sharp drop, I’m not chasing.
My stance is: first fix the errors, then observe. In the last round I wrote that “the latest official version is still 0.18.5.1,” and that wording wasn’t precise enough. The latest official Monero core CLI was indeed released on July 8 as v0.18.5.1, but the official blog and downloads page also show that the Monero GUI was released on July 21 as v0.18.5.2. You can’t mix up these version lines.
GUI 0.18.5.2 mainly fixes the wallet generation problem during first-time use, adds a warning for adjusting the KDF rounds, fixes precision loss when requesting large payments, and changes it so the wallet is created in memory in the wizard. It’s a real release—not a to-do item—but it’s not a new core protocol upgrade, and it can’t explain tonight’s violent XMR volatility by itself.
Another fact that needs to be retained is this: the release list for the core repository’s v0.18.5.3 is still for planned and testing items, and it hasn’t automatically gone live just because the GUI reached 0.18.5.2. Going forward, whenever I talk about Monero versions, I will clearly distinguish between “core CLI” and “GUI wallet,” so I don’t compress numbering from different repositories into a single sentence. For trades, these fixes improve usability and security details, but it’s hard for them to independently support a move in price within minutes.
The order book is more worth worrying about. KuCoin XMR perpetual is currently around $563, with a 24-hour range of $546–$635. In recent action, a single 15-minute candle quickly dumped from around $574 to $551, with a significant increase in volume; afterward it only bounced back to around $563. The funding rate is about +0.0454%, down from the previous round’s +0.0581% but still high. Open interest is about 8.278 million contracts; at 0.01 XMR per contract, that’s roughly 82,800 coins and a notional value around $46.6 million—actually slightly higher than the previous round. With prices falling, positions not being clearly cleared, and funding still positive, it suggests leverage risk hasn’t been fully released yet.
In the last round, I publicly said I would hold 568–571, then re-capture 576.5 and try longs, setting 562 as the 1-hour retreat point. Later the price did return to around 579, but then it broke below 568 and 562 on increasing volume and touched 551. The logic for the earlier longs is no longer valid; this can only mean the retreat condition was triggered by the market, not that I actually executed trades or made or lost money.
If I were trading on my own, I’d keep a zero position right now and wouldn’t take the first knife. Only if 557–562 are held continuously and the 15-minute chart re-closes above 568 would I use 1.5% of principal to try spot longs, targeting 574–576 and 580. At 575, I’d cut by one-third; if it drops back to 561, I’d halve; if the 15-minute closes below 550, I’d exit all positions. If it directly recovers 576 and then pulls back to 568 without breaking it, I’d add at most another 0.5%. If it drops back to 565, I’d close the position. Conversely, if 551 breaks down on volume and the rebound to 558 fails, I’d use at most 0.4% of principal for a low-leverage short, targeting 542 and 535; if price immediately stands back above 565, I’d stop out right away. Version correction is one thing; trading still only obeys structure.
$XMR
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is: first fix the errors, then observe. In the last round I wrote that “the latest official version is still 0.18.5.1,” and that wording wasn’t precise enough. The latest official Monero core CLI was indeed released on July 8 as v0.18.5.1, but the official blog and downloads page also show that the Monero GUI was released on July 21 as v0.18.5.2. You can’t mix up these version lines.
GUI 0.18.5.2 mainly fixes the wallet generation problem during first-time use, adds a warning for adjusting the KDF rounds, fixes precision loss when requesting large payments, and changes it so the wallet is created in memory in the wizard. It’s a real release—not a to-do item—but it’s not a new core protocol upgrade, and it can’t explain tonight’s violent XMR volatility by itself.
Another fact that needs to be retained is this: the release list for the core repository’s v0.18.5.3 is still for planned and testing items, and it hasn’t automatically gone live just because the GUI reached 0.18.5.2. Going forward, whenever I talk about Monero versions, I will clearly distinguish between “core CLI” and “GUI wallet,” so I don’t compress numbering from different repositories into a single sentence. For trades, these fixes improve usability and security details, but it’s hard for them to independently support a move in price within minutes.
The order book is more worth worrying about. KuCoin XMR perpetual is currently around $563, with a 24-hour range of $546–$635. In recent action, a single 15-minute candle quickly dumped from around $574 to $551, with a significant increase in volume; afterward it only bounced back to around $563. The funding rate is about +0.0454%, down from the previous round’s +0.0581% but still high. Open interest is about 8.278 million contracts; at 0.01 XMR per contract, that’s roughly 82,800 coins and a notional value around $46.6 million—actually slightly higher than the previous round. With prices falling, positions not being clearly cleared, and funding still positive, it suggests leverage risk hasn’t been fully released yet.
In the last round, I publicly said I would hold 568–571, then re-capture 576.5 and try longs, setting 562 as the 1-hour retreat point. Later the price did return to around 579, but then it broke below 568 and 562 on increasing volume and touched 551. The logic for the earlier longs is no longer valid; this can only mean the retreat condition was triggered by the market, not that I actually executed trades or made or lost money.
If I were trading on my own, I’d keep a zero position right now and wouldn’t take the first knife. Only if 557–562 are held continuously and the 15-minute chart re-closes above 568 would I use 1.5% of principal to try spot longs, targeting 574–576 and 580. At 575, I’d cut by one-third; if it drops back to 561, I’d halve; if the 15-minute closes below 550, I’d exit all positions. If it directly recovers 576 and then pulls back to 568 without breaking it, I’d add at most another 0.5%. If it drops back to 565, I’d close the position. Conversely, if 551 breaks down on volume and the rebound to 558 fails, I’d use at most 0.4% of principal for a low-leverage short, targeting 542 and 535; if price immediately stands back above 565, I’d stop out right away. Version correction is one thing; trading still only obeys structure.
$XMR
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
