A tweet says, "The bottom of the bear market is already in.".
15 of the top five-star VIPs together retweet it on the platform—182,000 views, and the comments section is all full of congratulations.
I flipped through the attached images upside down—apart from a moving average line, there’s not a shred of hard evidence.
This week, Bitcoin indeed did one thing: after 45 weeks, it’s been trading again above the 50-week moving average.
But this moving average isn’t a prophet—it’s a hindsight confirmation. In the 45 days, the price had already risen 29%, and only then did the moving average catch up to validate it.
In other words, it’s not the people who found the bottom who entered—it’s the momentum chasers.
The shorts started adding to their positions, and the late bulls rushed in together—suddenly everything got lively.
The liveliness is real; the evidence is fake:
No mention of whether the ETF had net inflows.
No mention of whether on-chain spot buy orders increased in volume.
No mention of whether funding rates fell back.
What supports the conclusion that a "bottom is already in" is only a single line the price drew itself, and the retweets from 15 big V accounts.
Even with higher retweet volume, it’s not a real spot order.
What I’m watching isn’t how heated this wave of retweets is. It’s whether the price can hold up against repeated pullbacks to the 50-week moving average without breaking, and whether more altcoins can truly surge together with real volume.
As long as those two signals haven’t been confirmed, the judgment that the "bear market has bottomed" isn’t valid. At this point, I’m more bearish / more inclined to range trading—I won’t chase.
$BTC #Bitcoin #Bitcoin
15 of the top five-star VIPs together retweet it on the platform—182,000 views, and the comments section is all full of congratulations.
I flipped through the attached images upside down—apart from a moving average line, there’s not a shred of hard evidence.
This week, Bitcoin indeed did one thing: after 45 weeks, it’s been trading again above the 50-week moving average.
But this moving average isn’t a prophet—it’s a hindsight confirmation. In the 45 days, the price had already risen 29%, and only then did the moving average catch up to validate it.
In other words, it’s not the people who found the bottom who entered—it’s the momentum chasers.
The shorts started adding to their positions, and the late bulls rushed in together—suddenly everything got lively.
The liveliness is real; the evidence is fake:
No mention of whether the ETF had net inflows.
No mention of whether on-chain spot buy orders increased in volume.
No mention of whether funding rates fell back.
What supports the conclusion that a "bottom is already in" is only a single line the price drew itself, and the retweets from 15 big V accounts.
Even with higher retweet volume, it’s not a real spot order.
What I’m watching isn’t how heated this wave of retweets is. It’s whether the price can hold up against repeated pullbacks to the 50-week moving average without breaking, and whether more altcoins can truly surge together with real volume.
As long as those two signals haven’t been confirmed, the judgment that the "bear market has bottomed" isn’t valid. At this point, I’m more bearish / more inclined to range trading—I won’t chase.
$BTC #Bitcoin #Bitcoin