#BTC走势分析 As far as this leg of the US stock rally is concerned, it’s basically about done. All my US stock orders are also squared off now; overall it’s been pretty good!
So has the crypto uptrend ended too? I don’t think it has ended. What will happen next? Let me share my expectations!
1: Macro: The Clear Bill has passed. Rate hikes are already a thing of the past. There’s likely to be another rate hike within the year, but the market will likely digest the negative news in advance. When that rate hike actually comes, I believe there won’t be much volatility—maybe even less than this time. In recent days, Trump has said he doesn’t rule out meeting with the Iranian president. That’s intentional de-escalation of tensions. Today’s drop in oil also supports this expectation. With Trump’s midterm election ending in November, before that happens I don’t think the probability of a geopolitical escalation is high. This provides a foundation for the crypto market in the next phase.
2: Technicals: Looking back at the previous two bull cycles, after BTC broke through the key box range in 2023, it continued upward by 23.4%, then pulled back to the top of that box without breaking below it, which confirmed that the bull market was officially underway. I compared that historical magnitude with today’s actual situation. Right now, a move upward from the top of the box by 18% lands exactly at the key resistance level. If we follow the “cutting the boat to fit the sword” logic, BTC would likely range upward into the 94,500–97,500 zone, and I would consider entering a short from that area. Of course, for those who want to be safer, it would be more reasonable to wait until BTC completes the pullback action before entering.
3: Logic: BTC made multiple attempts before it finally broke above 82,500. Since it broke through so hard, it probably won’t pull back quickly. Based on the timing: if rate hikes continue in October, that would be the timing for the next pullback. So in the period from late September to late October, the logic aligns with a sideways-to-up movement.
Overall: for the rest of this month’s trading, I will still follow the principle of going long on dips, but I won’t hold long-term positions. I’ll mainly trade swings—take a bite and move on. Only when it truly forms a pullback pattern will I consider holding a long-term position!
Every post I make is coded out word-for-word by me personally, with no AI involvement. If you agree with my viewpoint, please feel free to hit follow!
So has the crypto uptrend ended too? I don’t think it has ended. What will happen next? Let me share my expectations!
1: Macro: The Clear Bill has passed. Rate hikes are already a thing of the past. There’s likely to be another rate hike within the year, but the market will likely digest the negative news in advance. When that rate hike actually comes, I believe there won’t be much volatility—maybe even less than this time. In recent days, Trump has said he doesn’t rule out meeting with the Iranian president. That’s intentional de-escalation of tensions. Today’s drop in oil also supports this expectation. With Trump’s midterm election ending in November, before that happens I don’t think the probability of a geopolitical escalation is high. This provides a foundation for the crypto market in the next phase.
2: Technicals: Looking back at the previous two bull cycles, after BTC broke through the key box range in 2023, it continued upward by 23.4%, then pulled back to the top of that box without breaking below it, which confirmed that the bull market was officially underway. I compared that historical magnitude with today’s actual situation. Right now, a move upward from the top of the box by 18% lands exactly at the key resistance level. If we follow the “cutting the boat to fit the sword” logic, BTC would likely range upward into the 94,500–97,500 zone, and I would consider entering a short from that area. Of course, for those who want to be safer, it would be more reasonable to wait until BTC completes the pullback action before entering.
3: Logic: BTC made multiple attempts before it finally broke above 82,500. Since it broke through so hard, it probably won’t pull back quickly. Based on the timing: if rate hikes continue in October, that would be the timing for the next pullback. So in the period from late September to late October, the logic aligns with a sideways-to-up movement.
Overall: for the rest of this month’s trading, I will still follow the principle of going long on dips, but I won’t hold long-term positions. I’ll mainly trade swings—take a bite and move on. Only when it truly forms a pullback pattern will I consider holding a long-term position!
Every post I make is coded out word-for-word by me personally, with no AI involvement. If you agree with my viewpoint, please feel free to hit follow!
