【ETH is up 10%, but after seeing a set of data I feel uneasy】
Yesterday, an old friend of mine who does quant trading sent me a chart—ETH's open interest has quietly broken above the previous high, and the spot trading volume has also surged to the highest level in this period.
At the time, I told him: bro, be careful.
I’m not bearish on ETH. Bitmine just bought $75 million worth of orders, and Tom Lee is still calling for institutions to be underallocated—those things I know. But after doing this for so many years, I have an instinct: trading volume tops out before price.
Now the numbers are right here—
The FNG index is 70, just one step away from 80, “extreme greed.” It’s up 4.6% in 24 hours, 10% in 7 days, and 14.4% in 30 days. Honestly, this slope makes me a bit uneasy.
Do you remember the November 2021 run-up when ETH surged to 4800? Back then, the FNG was also in the 70s, and volume was also at record highs. What happened afterward? It dropped for almost a full year.
I’m not here to scare you. I want to say something else—
On the Solana side, Kyle Samani is calling it a “flippening,” claiming no one uses ETH. You can treat that kind of talk as just talk, but he’s got one point right: right now, ETH is being pushed by capital and sentiment, not by genuine, real ecosystem demand.
That’s what I mean by “put it into practice”—
Of the ETH you hold now, 80% is other people’s sentiment, and 20% is real locked-in demand. This isn’t to say ETH is bad—it’s to say that whenever this ratio exists in any market, it becomes a breeding ground for high volatility.
Bitmine is buying, institutions are stepping in—fine. But what are they buying? Long-term positions. And what about you?
If you charge in with a full position right now, you need to think about one thing:
If there’s a 10%-15% pullback, can you hold through it? Do you have a stop-loss? Are you adding using a pyramid strategy, or a reverse pyramid?
I’m not going to predict up or down. I’ll only tell you this: the fuel for this current rally is running out fast.
Have you set up risk hedging, or are you ready to go all in and bet on this round?
Yesterday, an old friend of mine who does quant trading sent me a chart—ETH's open interest has quietly broken above the previous high, and the spot trading volume has also surged to the highest level in this period.
At the time, I told him: bro, be careful.
I’m not bearish on ETH. Bitmine just bought $75 million worth of orders, and Tom Lee is still calling for institutions to be underallocated—those things I know. But after doing this for so many years, I have an instinct: trading volume tops out before price.
Now the numbers are right here—
The FNG index is 70, just one step away from 80, “extreme greed.” It’s up 4.6% in 24 hours, 10% in 7 days, and 14.4% in 30 days. Honestly, this slope makes me a bit uneasy.
Do you remember the November 2021 run-up when ETH surged to 4800? Back then, the FNG was also in the 70s, and volume was also at record highs. What happened afterward? It dropped for almost a full year.
I’m not here to scare you. I want to say something else—
On the Solana side, Kyle Samani is calling it a “flippening,” claiming no one uses ETH. You can treat that kind of talk as just talk, but he’s got one point right: right now, ETH is being pushed by capital and sentiment, not by genuine, real ecosystem demand.
That’s what I mean by “put it into practice”—
Of the ETH you hold now, 80% is other people’s sentiment, and 20% is real locked-in demand. This isn’t to say ETH is bad—it’s to say that whenever this ratio exists in any market, it becomes a breeding ground for high volatility.
Bitmine is buying, institutions are stepping in—fine. But what are they buying? Long-term positions. And what about you?
If you charge in with a full position right now, you need to think about one thing:
If there’s a 10%-15% pullback, can you hold through it? Do you have a stop-loss? Are you adding using a pyramid strategy, or a reverse pyramid?
I’m not going to predict up or down. I’ll only tell you this: the fuel for this current rally is running out fast.
Have you set up risk hedging, or are you ready to go all in and bet on this round?