Bitcoin is trading around $84,000 to $85,000. Forecasts for the fourth quarter (October, November, and December) revolve around two major scenarios based on historical seasonality, the macroeconomic backdrop, and regulatory factors.
1. Seasonality of the fourth quarter (Q4):
Historically, the year-end period is the most favorable for the crypto-asset market:
October (« Uptober »): Traditionally a bullish month marked by a renewed inflow of liquidity and a heightened appetite for risk.
November & December: A period often favorable for year-end rallies, particularly in the context of central bank monetary easing.
2. Price scenarios for year-end:
October $88,000 - $95,000
November $95,000 - $105,000
December $105,000 - $120,000
3. Key factors to watch:
Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions: Rate cuts and the outlook for monetary policy in the United States remain the main macroeconomic driver.
U.S. elections (November): The political direction of Congress and decisions on the regulatory framework for digital assets (such as the CLARITY Act) strongly influence institutional investors' confidence.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows:
The magnitude of net inflows into spot ETFs provides major support to current price levels.
Warning: Cryptocurrency prices are subject to high volatility. These estimates do not constitute investment advice in any way.
