$BTC current price 85049.80, up 5.61% over the past 24 hours. After the “big pie” liquidated short positions totaling more than $648 million, it is currently in a fierce short-squeeze on the short term, directly testing the key resistance above.
My core judgment: shorting—this is an against-the-trend setup that compromises for an extreme risk-reward. Although spot buying and sentiment show overwhelming long-side strength, by relying on tight stops of about 1% in the strong resistance zone, you’re betting on the downside mean-reversion back toward the moving average; the payout is excellent.
Macro picture: the market greed index is as high as 70. After the rate cut, risk appetite has risen significantly. The strong quarterly rally of 44% in Q3 has fueled intense bull-market expectations. Combined with institutions resuming purchases after a two-week pause—adding a $75.70 million spot bid for support—overall liquidity and sentiment fully support going long with the trend. This week, you still need to watch out for risks from event-driven geopolitical showdowns involving major powers.
Levels and larger timeframe: the overall trend is clearly in a bullish structure, but the current price has already deviated upward significantly from the 1-hour moving average (82287.26), and it has precisely entered the 24-hour strong resistance suppression zone around 85449. The absolute resistance above is at 85876.24; if it breaks upward with volume, the technical resistance will be completely invalidated.
Trading plan: I choose to short. This is a pure contrarian trade with a lower win rate, so you must strictly use a very small position size and absolutely do not add to the position to hold through losses. Entry range: 84624.55–85449.00. Stop-loss: 85876.24. First target: 79870.79. Second target: 77383.47. The current long/short ratio is only 0.91 and open interest is elevated; there is always the risk of remaining short-squeeze liquidation sweeps. Make sure to wait until the active buying momentum fully exhausts before getting involved.
The above is purely my personal opinion. I share trading insights every day—feel free to follow and engage in discussion.
My core judgment: shorting—this is an against-the-trend setup that compromises for an extreme risk-reward. Although spot buying and sentiment show overwhelming long-side strength, by relying on tight stops of about 1% in the strong resistance zone, you’re betting on the downside mean-reversion back toward the moving average; the payout is excellent.
Macro picture: the market greed index is as high as 70. After the rate cut, risk appetite has risen significantly. The strong quarterly rally of 44% in Q3 has fueled intense bull-market expectations. Combined with institutions resuming purchases after a two-week pause—adding a $75.70 million spot bid for support—overall liquidity and sentiment fully support going long with the trend. This week, you still need to watch out for risks from event-driven geopolitical showdowns involving major powers.
Levels and larger timeframe: the overall trend is clearly in a bullish structure, but the current price has already deviated upward significantly from the 1-hour moving average (82287.26), and it has precisely entered the 24-hour strong resistance suppression zone around 85449. The absolute resistance above is at 85876.24; if it breaks upward with volume, the technical resistance will be completely invalidated.
Trading plan: I choose to short. This is a pure contrarian trade with a lower win rate, so you must strictly use a very small position size and absolutely do not add to the position to hold through losses. Entry range: 84624.55–85449.00. Stop-loss: 85876.24. First target: 79870.79. Second target: 77383.47. The current long/short ratio is only 0.91 and open interest is elevated; there is always the risk of remaining short-squeeze liquidation sweeps. Make sure to wait until the active buying momentum fully exhausts before getting involved.
The above is purely my personal opinion. I share trading insights every day—feel free to follow and engage in discussion.