Seeing today’s $SOL bullish candle up +8.36%, many people will read it as a signal of trend reversal. I think the interpretation needs adjusting: this is a rebound entering a resistance zone, not the beginning of a breakout.
Why can’t we just look at price? In the past 24 hours, volume is 5.57B—doesn’t look bad. But on August 28, when price also held above 109, volume was 7.04B. Now price has made a 30-day high, yet volume has actually shrunk by about 20%. Over the past month, from 96.87 to 117 is a 24% rise—but this surge has been concentrated in only the last three days. Going farther back, it’s still down 51% over the year, and it’s still 60% away from its ATH. This looks more like a repair within a long-term downtrend channel, not the starting point of a new cycle.
What are the funds really trading? I’m more inclined to believe it’s short covering combined with some liquidity rushing ahead. On September 19, a 6.6B volume candle pulled the price from 101 to 112. Today, volume has shrunk while price is pushed up to 117. That suggests there are fewer buyers willing to chase at this level. The key confirmation isn’t whether price can hold above 117 today, but whether it can absorb the retest at 109—the previous high.
Risk is hiding in sentiment: if this is only a pulse and there’s no on-chain activity or ecosystem data to back it up, once external liquidity tightens, $SOL ’s pullback will be sharper than the rise. Conversely, if over the next three days volume returns to above 7B and price holds above 112, then my view would be wrong.
So I want to be challenged: which variable do you think will be the first to overturn this judgment—continued expansion in trading volume, or an anomaly in some on-chain metric?
Why can’t we just look at price? In the past 24 hours, volume is 5.57B—doesn’t look bad. But on August 28, when price also held above 109, volume was 7.04B. Now price has made a 30-day high, yet volume has actually shrunk by about 20%. Over the past month, from 96.87 to 117 is a 24% rise—but this surge has been concentrated in only the last three days. Going farther back, it’s still down 51% over the year, and it’s still 60% away from its ATH. This looks more like a repair within a long-term downtrend channel, not the starting point of a new cycle.
What are the funds really trading? I’m more inclined to believe it’s short covering combined with some liquidity rushing ahead. On September 19, a 6.6B volume candle pulled the price from 101 to 112. Today, volume has shrunk while price is pushed up to 117. That suggests there are fewer buyers willing to chase at this level. The key confirmation isn’t whether price can hold above 117 today, but whether it can absorb the retest at 109—the previous high.
Risk is hiding in sentiment: if this is only a pulse and there’s no on-chain activity or ecosystem data to back it up, once external liquidity tightens, $SOL ’s pullback will be sharper than the rise. Conversely, if over the next three days volume returns to above 7B and price holds above 112, then my view would be wrong.
So I want to be challenged: which variable do you think will be the first to overturn this judgment—continued expansion in trading volume, or an anomaly in some on-chain metric?