$BTC Surged by 5,000 points in one day—has the real breakout wave arrived?
Just today, Chinese state media officially announced that the leader will visit the U.S. on the 23rd, with Trump personally receiving them at the highest level. The moment the news broke, the capital markets went completely into frenzy—both the crypto market and U.S. stocks surged together. The big pie (BTC) climbed from around 80,000 all the way to 85,500, jumping by 5,000 points in a single day.
Why did it rise?
Besides the epoch-making positive catalyst from the China-U.S. meeting, three other things are resonating at the same time: the SEC’s “innovation exemption” clearing tokenized U.S. stocks; the CFTC pushing crypto regulation past Congress; and ETF net inflows exceeding $590 million for two consecutive days. Fundamentals, policy, and liquidity are all turning toward the upside.
But I want to talk about something a bit different.
According to the 1:1 box structure, the box from 75,000 to 80,000 for BTC implies the doubled target upside is around 85,000. Today’s high touched about 85,480—basically it has already achieved that target.
What does that mean? It means the bulls are locking in profits here, which is a choice consistent with technical logic. I’m not saying it can’t keep rising, but the cost-effectiveness of chasing higher from this level isn’t as good as it was a few days ago.
My view:
Tonight when the U.S. stock market opens, there’s likely another wave of upside. But this burst of strength is expected to last until the Wednesday China-U.S. meeting. After that? “Buy the rumor, sell the news”—we may well see a healthy pullback.
Looking even further out: this rally could keep going until after the National Day holiday. The reason is simple—during National Day, China’s A-shares market is closed, and funds will look for other exit routes, and the crypto market naturally benefits. Last year, around the National Day period there was also a surprisingly good run—then on October 11th, a sudden “black swan” hit. Of course, history is only for reference and doesn’t guarantee a fixed pattern.
But honestly, I’m not at the bottom-fishing point yet.
My bottom-fishing timing is October 5th and December 7th—these are the time windows calculated based on the halving cycle. I know some people will say this bull run has already started, and maybe there’s no need to wait until Q4. Maybe you’re right—maybe I’ll miss part of the move.
So what? In trading, it’s better to miss than to make the wrong move. I’ll keep a portion of my position and stay on the sidelines, waiting for my time window.
Market moves are always born in pessimism and grow in doubt. Right now, many people are still doubting—and that may well mean the bull market is only just beginning. But tempo matters more than direction. I’ll stick to my plan.
$BTC
$ETH
Just today, Chinese state media officially announced that the leader will visit the U.S. on the 23rd, with Trump personally receiving them at the highest level. The moment the news broke, the capital markets went completely into frenzy—both the crypto market and U.S. stocks surged together. The big pie (BTC) climbed from around 80,000 all the way to 85,500, jumping by 5,000 points in a single day.
Why did it rise?
Besides the epoch-making positive catalyst from the China-U.S. meeting, three other things are resonating at the same time: the SEC’s “innovation exemption” clearing tokenized U.S. stocks; the CFTC pushing crypto regulation past Congress; and ETF net inflows exceeding $590 million for two consecutive days. Fundamentals, policy, and liquidity are all turning toward the upside.
But I want to talk about something a bit different.
According to the 1:1 box structure, the box from 75,000 to 80,000 for BTC implies the doubled target upside is around 85,000. Today’s high touched about 85,480—basically it has already achieved that target.
What does that mean? It means the bulls are locking in profits here, which is a choice consistent with technical logic. I’m not saying it can’t keep rising, but the cost-effectiveness of chasing higher from this level isn’t as good as it was a few days ago.
My view:
Tonight when the U.S. stock market opens, there’s likely another wave of upside. But this burst of strength is expected to last until the Wednesday China-U.S. meeting. After that? “Buy the rumor, sell the news”—we may well see a healthy pullback.
Looking even further out: this rally could keep going until after the National Day holiday. The reason is simple—during National Day, China’s A-shares market is closed, and funds will look for other exit routes, and the crypto market naturally benefits. Last year, around the National Day period there was also a surprisingly good run—then on October 11th, a sudden “black swan” hit. Of course, history is only for reference and doesn’t guarantee a fixed pattern.
But honestly, I’m not at the bottom-fishing point yet.
My bottom-fishing timing is October 5th and December 7th—these are the time windows calculated based on the halving cycle. I know some people will say this bull run has already started, and maybe there’s no need to wait until Q4. Maybe you’re right—maybe I’ll miss part of the move.
So what? In trading, it’s better to miss than to make the wrong move. I’ll keep a portion of my position and stay on the sidelines, waiting for my time window.
Market moves are always born in pessimism and grow in doubt. Right now, many people are still doubting—and that may well mean the bull market is only just beginning. But tempo matters more than direction. I’ll stick to my plan.
$BTC
$ETH
