$BTC quietly climbed back to over $80,000—this script is something not many people can guess
The most unexpected news over the weekend was Forbes’s piece: after a personnel earthquake in the CFTC, Bitcoin managed to crawl back above $80,000 in just two days from under the shadow of rate hikes. In the past, when Fed rate hikes hit together with a broader war in the Middle East, the crypto market would have dumped instantly—no questions asked. This time, though, it turned out that $BTC became a safe haven for some funds. The market simply keeps correcting every assumption.
Look at today’s tape: Trump said he wants to wreck Iran’s economy. Iran’s speaker said the Strait of Hormuz won’t be opened. A Saudi oil pipeline was hit, and oil prices briefly touched $100 a few days ago. But today, as shipping through the strait rebounds, oil prices fell straight for the fourth day. The whole market has been repeatedly bouncing around in a loop of “just get scared, then calm down”—the volatility is so insane that the needle-through-pricing scenario mainly harvests people who try to profit from both sides.
The UNGA opened this week, and the U.S.–China negotiations are also taking place in New York. Trump even said on the record that he might meet with Iran’s president. This week’s news cycle will be extremely packed. My one piece of advice: don’t go all-in with your position—keep some ammo reserved for pullbacks.
To be blunt, whether we can hold above $80,000 isn’t determined by the candlesticks themselves. It depends on when the next bomb in the Middle East is going to go off. Staying alive matters more than guessing the right direction.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #地缘政治 #美联储 #cryptocurrency market
The most unexpected news over the weekend was Forbes’s piece: after a personnel earthquake in the CFTC, Bitcoin managed to crawl back above $80,000 in just two days from under the shadow of rate hikes. In the past, when Fed rate hikes hit together with a broader war in the Middle East, the crypto market would have dumped instantly—no questions asked. This time, though, it turned out that $BTC became a safe haven for some funds. The market simply keeps correcting every assumption.
Look at today’s tape: Trump said he wants to wreck Iran’s economy. Iran’s speaker said the Strait of Hormuz won’t be opened. A Saudi oil pipeline was hit, and oil prices briefly touched $100 a few days ago. But today, as shipping through the strait rebounds, oil prices fell straight for the fourth day. The whole market has been repeatedly bouncing around in a loop of “just get scared, then calm down”—the volatility is so insane that the needle-through-pricing scenario mainly harvests people who try to profit from both sides.
The UNGA opened this week, and the U.S.–China negotiations are also taking place in New York. Trump even said on the record that he might meet with Iran’s president. This week’s news cycle will be extremely packed. My one piece of advice: don’t go all-in with your position—keep some ammo reserved for pullbacks.
To be blunt, whether we can hold above $80,000 isn’t determined by the candlesticks themselves. It depends on when the next bomb in the Middle East is going to go off. Staying alive matters more than guessing the right direction.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #地缘政治 #美联储 #cryptocurrency market