Tax drain 148$ bn in TGA didn’t break overnight funding — $BTC is already above 80k. The market was waiting for a squeeze after the hike, but it didn’t happen.
Numbers. Fed H.4.1 in 16 Sep: Treasury General Account +148,003$ bn to 991,708$ bn (tax-date). Commercial banks’ deposits at the Fed -114,971$ bn to 2,922$ tn. SOFR on 17 Sep: 3.85% on almost 3$ tn volume — 5 bps below IORB 3.90%; even the 99th percentile 3.93% stayed below the standing repo 4.00%. Fed range after the 16 Sep hike: 3.75–4.00%. $BTC from ~76 150$ k moved above 80k and is holding around ~81 500–82 000$.
My take: this isn’t “Treasury bought Bitcoin.” This is minus one macro risk: tax-date plus the rate increase didn’t knock repo out of the Fed corridor. As long as SOFR stays calm, attention goes back to demand and positioning. If short-term funding pops back above the corridor, risk-off will return faster than any alt-news.
Question: next test for $BTC — fresh institutional bid or a new SOFR spike?
$BTC #Bitcoin
Numbers. Fed H.4.1 in 16 Sep: Treasury General Account +148,003$ bn to 991,708$ bn (tax-date). Commercial banks’ deposits at the Fed -114,971$ bn to 2,922$ tn. SOFR on 17 Sep: 3.85% on almost 3$ tn volume — 5 bps below IORB 3.90%; even the 99th percentile 3.93% stayed below the standing repo 4.00%. Fed range after the 16 Sep hike: 3.75–4.00%. $BTC from ~76 150$ k moved above 80k and is holding around ~81 500–82 000$.
My take: this isn’t “Treasury bought Bitcoin.” This is minus one macro risk: tax-date plus the rate increase didn’t knock repo out of the Fed corridor. As long as SOFR stays calm, attention goes back to demand and positioning. If short-term funding pops back above the corridor, risk-off will return faster than any alt-news.
Question: next test for $BTC — fresh institutional bid or a new SOFR spike?
$BTC #Bitcoin