#Bitcoin Breaks Through the $80,000 Mark
BTC is now at $81,785, up 1.83% over the past 24 hours. The crowd in the square is shouting “breakthrough.” I broke down the liquidation data—I looked closely at this move. The money behind this rally doesn’t seem right; it wasn’t bought up willingly—it was forced out.
In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the market hit $334 million: short liquidations were $244 million, while long liquidations were only $89.41 million. Shorts were liquidated, and the trading proceeds bought back the contracts to close the accounts. This buy pressure doesn’t care about the price, and it has no judgment—it just follows the mechanics. The ratio is 2.73 to 1. That’s the fuel for this rise.
Who’s getting beaten? In the last 4 hours, Binance liquidated $8.1449 million, accounting for 45.9% of the entire market. Of that, 53.82% was longs being hit. The largest single liquidation was on Gate: the BTC_USDT isolated position lost $3.4213 million.
Even more interesting: on Hyperliquid, 63.05% was shorts being hit, while on HTX, 93.89% was longs being hit—these two platforms are paying in opposite directions.
As for ETFs, that portion is truly voluntary money, and the direction still doesn’t line up: the latest trading day’s net inflow is $625 million. If you extend it to 5 trading days, it becomes a net outflow of $61.44 million. Stablecoin total supply is 310.932 billion; over 30 days, net increased by 2.293 billion, but over the last 7 days, it only increased by 436 million.
Over the counter (OTC) market this week, inflows and outflows broadly offset each other. But prices are up 4.50% over 7 days—the ones pushing it higher are still the shorts being liquidated.
Let’s look one layer deeper. By position size, Binance big accounts have a long/short ratio of 2.0744. Long positions account for 67.47%. But by number of accounts, retail traders show only 0.8657, with long accounts at 46.40%. The side with more money stands long; the side with more people stands short.
So at this level, I lean toward shorts. But that’s not the same as “short because it went up.”
The short case is very simple: the force of the short squeeze is declining. Shorts made up 73% over 24 hours; 47.9% over 4 hours; and just 34.2% over the last 1 hour—now the ones getting beaten have switched to longs. The active buy/sell volume ratio is 0.7043, meaning sell orders are pressing down on buy orders by 1.42 times.
There’s also only one place I can’t “go all in”: open interest hasn’t really moved. In 24 hours, it goes from 109,424 to 109,453 BTC—up only about 1.83% in price while positions barely change. The positions weren’t added; the rise is all in price. If later the positions start expanding with volume, and it’s longs adding, then this whole setup needs to be overturned.
So I don’t focus on the price—I focus on open interest. If it continues to not increase, and longs keep getting beaten, then this setup holds. If it starts expanding with rising volume, I’ll overturn and reassess.
$BTC #Bitcoin Breaks Through the $80,000 Mark
Personal opinion only; not investment advice.
BTC is now at $81,785, up 1.83% over the past 24 hours. The crowd in the square is shouting “breakthrough.” I broke down the liquidation data—I looked closely at this move. The money behind this rally doesn’t seem right; it wasn’t bought up willingly—it was forced out.
In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the market hit $334 million: short liquidations were $244 million, while long liquidations were only $89.41 million. Shorts were liquidated, and the trading proceeds bought back the contracts to close the accounts. This buy pressure doesn’t care about the price, and it has no judgment—it just follows the mechanics. The ratio is 2.73 to 1. That’s the fuel for this rise.
Who’s getting beaten? In the last 4 hours, Binance liquidated $8.1449 million, accounting for 45.9% of the entire market. Of that, 53.82% was longs being hit. The largest single liquidation was on Gate: the BTC_USDT isolated position lost $3.4213 million.
Even more interesting: on Hyperliquid, 63.05% was shorts being hit, while on HTX, 93.89% was longs being hit—these two platforms are paying in opposite directions.
As for ETFs, that portion is truly voluntary money, and the direction still doesn’t line up: the latest trading day’s net inflow is $625 million. If you extend it to 5 trading days, it becomes a net outflow of $61.44 million. Stablecoin total supply is 310.932 billion; over 30 days, net increased by 2.293 billion, but over the last 7 days, it only increased by 436 million.
Over the counter (OTC) market this week, inflows and outflows broadly offset each other. But prices are up 4.50% over 7 days—the ones pushing it higher are still the shorts being liquidated.
Let’s look one layer deeper. By position size, Binance big accounts have a long/short ratio of 2.0744. Long positions account for 67.47%. But by number of accounts, retail traders show only 0.8657, with long accounts at 46.40%. The side with more money stands long; the side with more people stands short.
So at this level, I lean toward shorts. But that’s not the same as “short because it went up.”
The short case is very simple: the force of the short squeeze is declining. Shorts made up 73% over 24 hours; 47.9% over 4 hours; and just 34.2% over the last 1 hour—now the ones getting beaten have switched to longs. The active buy/sell volume ratio is 0.7043, meaning sell orders are pressing down on buy orders by 1.42 times.
There’s also only one place I can’t “go all in”: open interest hasn’t really moved. In 24 hours, it goes from 109,424 to 109,453 BTC—up only about 1.83% in price while positions barely change. The positions weren’t added; the rise is all in price. If later the positions start expanding with volume, and it’s longs adding, then this whole setup needs to be overturned.
So I don’t focus on the price—I focus on open interest. If it continues to not increase, and longs keep getting beaten, then this setup holds. If it starts expanding with rising volume, I’ll overturn and reassess.
$BTC #Bitcoin Breaks Through the $80,000 Mark
Personal opinion only; not investment advice.