A single Ethereum perpetual contract trade worth $5,500 keeps showing up repeatedly on Kalshi’s order book, with traders calling it out directly on X as volume manipulation. Kalshi’s head of crypto responded, but the on-chain data is there: the same amount shows up again and again, and everyone can see it. The most valuable thing in prediction markets is data credibility. Kalshi’s valuation depends on this—if even the trading volume can be inflated, how will institutions perform due diligence before entering? I’ve been watching this for a while. No matter how beautifully the compliance narrative is presented, if the order book doesn’t match, that’s a deal-breaker.

$ETH