In my previous post I drew two numbers. Now I’m back to reconcile the accounts—one holds true, one doesn’t. #Bitcoin breaks through the $80,000 mark
First number: will Binance BTC contract open interest keep decreasing? At the time it was 108,166 coins, with 24-hour -0.97%. Now it’s 108,950 coins, with 24-hour +1.08%. In twenty minutes, it’s up by 784 coins. From decrease turned into increase.
Second number: in the past 1 hour, who got hit more—longs or shorts? Right now longs are liquidated 2,632,000 and shorts 1,719,100; longs account for 54.15%. No change.
The directions given by the two numbers are opposite. So why haven’t I changed my stance?
Let’s talk about the one that’s satisfied first. The new positions are indeed getting opened—but who is opening them? By Binance BTC account convention, longs are 48.08%, shorts 51.92%, and the long/short account ratio is 0.926. Price has held above 81,000 for three straight days—on Sep 19 it closed at 81,250; on Sep 20 it closed at 81,178; today it’s 81,610. Price hasn’t dropped, and the side with more participants is still shorts. New longs haven’t come; new shorts have.
Now let’s talk about why the “hit” direction is even heavier. Break down BTC liquidation by tiers: in the last 24 hours, shorts are 77.03%; in the last 12 hours, 79.34%; over 4 hours it drops to 67.12%; in the most recent 1 hour, it’s down to only 45.85%. The force for a short squeeze is decreasing step by step—the buy orders that closed out shorts without caring about price have already been spent about as much as they can. Out of the 42.5463 million in the last 24 hours, most happened more than 12 hours ago.
So for this segment I’m still leaning bearish, but I’ll say it more firmly: 82,100 is this week’s referee. Break above it, and that 51.92% of shorts will become the fuel for the second leg; get pushed back down again and it’ll be the third time—except the volume is already not there anymore. Over the whole market, 24-hour spot trading volume is $176.899 billion, down another 9.83% from the day before; total open interest swung from -2.07% withdrawal to +2.75% increase. New money is entering, but it’s not being opened on BTC.
The number for the long cycle hasn’t changed: block height 967,955, 82,045 blocks until the next halving, roughly 570 days, landing in April 2028.
Updated overturn conditions: it’s not “open interest increases/decreases and then I change my mind.” It’s “open interest increases/decreases and, in the most recent 1 hour, the people getting liquidated switch back to shorts”—only when both happen together do I recognize it.
Data from the Binance contracts API and CoinGlass liquidation leaderboard, as of Sep 21 at 14:08.
$BTC #比特币突破8万美元大关
First number: will Binance BTC contract open interest keep decreasing? At the time it was 108,166 coins, with 24-hour -0.97%. Now it’s 108,950 coins, with 24-hour +1.08%. In twenty minutes, it’s up by 784 coins. From decrease turned into increase.
Second number: in the past 1 hour, who got hit more—longs or shorts? Right now longs are liquidated 2,632,000 and shorts 1,719,100; longs account for 54.15%. No change.
The directions given by the two numbers are opposite. So why haven’t I changed my stance?
Let’s talk about the one that’s satisfied first. The new positions are indeed getting opened—but who is opening them? By Binance BTC account convention, longs are 48.08%, shorts 51.92%, and the long/short account ratio is 0.926. Price has held above 81,000 for three straight days—on Sep 19 it closed at 81,250; on Sep 20 it closed at 81,178; today it’s 81,610. Price hasn’t dropped, and the side with more participants is still shorts. New longs haven’t come; new shorts have.
Now let’s talk about why the “hit” direction is even heavier. Break down BTC liquidation by tiers: in the last 24 hours, shorts are 77.03%; in the last 12 hours, 79.34%; over 4 hours it drops to 67.12%; in the most recent 1 hour, it’s down to only 45.85%. The force for a short squeeze is decreasing step by step—the buy orders that closed out shorts without caring about price have already been spent about as much as they can. Out of the 42.5463 million in the last 24 hours, most happened more than 12 hours ago.
So for this segment I’m still leaning bearish, but I’ll say it more firmly: 82,100 is this week’s referee. Break above it, and that 51.92% of shorts will become the fuel for the second leg; get pushed back down again and it’ll be the third time—except the volume is already not there anymore. Over the whole market, 24-hour spot trading volume is $176.899 billion, down another 9.83% from the day before; total open interest swung from -2.07% withdrawal to +2.75% increase. New money is entering, but it’s not being opened on BTC.
The number for the long cycle hasn’t changed: block height 967,955, 82,045 blocks until the next halving, roughly 570 days, landing in April 2028.
Updated overturn conditions: it’s not “open interest increases/decreases and then I change my mind.” It’s “open interest increases/decreases and, in the most recent 1 hour, the people getting liquidated switch back to shorts”—only when both happen together do I recognize it.
Data from the Binance contracts API and CoinGlass liquidation leaderboard, as of Sep 21 at 14:08.
$BTC #比特币突破8万美元大关