The Fed’s rate-hike “shoe” lands, the crypto market bounces back against the odds, and tokenized U.S. stocks usher in a historic opportunity

I. The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023; after severe market turbulence, it repaired quickly

In the early hours of September 18 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. This was the first rate hike since 2023. Fed official Kashkari said inflation pressure is spreading from the energy sector to the services industry, and persistent upside price risks have forced the central bank to take tightening action.

After the rate-hike news was released, the market briefly saw panic selling. Bitcoin fell temporarily to around $75,400. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of as much as $450 million in a single day. However, the market’s recovery speed far exceeded expectations. By September 21, Bitcoin had surged back above $81,000, up about 8.5% from its low point. Analysts noted that the market had already fully priced in the rate-hike expectations; instead, institutional funds accelerated their entry during the panic. On September 18 alone, spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached $433 million, indicating that institutional investors’ long-term confidence in crypto assets has not wavered.

II. The CLARITY Act setback in the Senate; for now, the regulatory landscape remains unchanged

Another major event impacting the market in tandem with the rate hike was the failure of the CLARITY Act in the Senate. The bill fell short of the required 60-vote threshold, losing by 49 votes to 50. This means regulatory authority over crypto assets will continue to be jointly exercised by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), rather than establishing an entirely new regulatory framework.

On the day the vote results were announced, the share prices of Coinbase and Circle briefly dropped by about 10%, and XRP also retreated by more than 8% at one point. But afterward, these assets all showed a clear rebound—XRP once again stood above $1.40. Industry figures such as Michael Saylor believe that the current innovative frameworks of the SEC and CFTC are sufficient to support industry development, without waiting for comprehensive legislation.

III. The SEC approves a tokenized stock exemption framework; traditional finance and the on-chain world accelerate their integration

Against the backdrop of tighter regulation, the SEC delivered a major positive development. The SEC approved a five-year conditional innovation framework that allows tokenized U.S. stocks to be traded on public blockchains via licensed automated market makers, without having to register as a national securities exchange.

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup analysts generally believe Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle are early beneficiaries of this policy framework. Coinbase has mature custody infrastructure, Robinhood has a large retail user base, and Circle’s USDC settlement tool will provide efficient clearing and settlement capabilities for on-chain stock trading. At present, Binance Chain has already launched several tokenized U.S. stock products, including EEM, MRNA, and LIN, covering multiple sectors such as emerging markets and biotech.

IV. Tokenized U.S. stock trading is active; ZETA jumps more than 60% in a single day

Judging from trading data, the tokenized U.S. stocks market has been extremely active recently. Over the past 24 hours, the ZETA contract rose 62.78%, with a quoted price of $0.063, and trading volume exceeding $77.6 million. The PTB contract rose 57.03%, with trading volume reaching $158 million. The NIL contract also performed strongly, climbing 41.92%. These figures suggest that on-chain trading of traditional financial assets is moving from niche experiments toward mainstream applications.

V. BNB Chain performance breakthrough provides infrastructure support for the RWA track

On the infrastructure side, BNB Chain recently completed a major network upgrade, reducing block production time to 450 milliseconds and reaching a theoretical throughput of 5,200 transactions per second. At the same time, it launched an AI-driven no-code token deployment tool, substantially lowering the development barrier. Decentralized exchanges also introduced a Pre-Access campaign: users can indirectly participate in investments in Pre-IPO companies via tokenization, further bridging the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance. The BNB price then rose by about 1.9% to $775.9, and the MACD indicator showed a bullish crossover signal.

VI. Outlook

The market is currently at a critical juncture where multiple factors intersect. The U.S. PMI data scheduled for release on September 23 will be the first major economic activity signal after the rate hike, and the market will closely watch the balance between inflation and economic growth. The technical camp views Bitcoin stabilizing near the 5-week moving average of around $78,700 as confirmation of a new bull market. Meanwhile, policy tailwinds for the tokenized U.S. stocks track are accelerating, and the on-chain wave of traditional financial assets may be just beginning.

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