$ETH current price is 2667.41, up 3.59% in the past 24 hours. This market move shows typical bearish liquidity-hunting characteristics. Over the past 72 hours, the long/short ratio has dropped sharply by 32% and open interest has risen in both directions. Fundamentally, this is a structural rebound driven by short liquidations—not a spot-led reversal.
My core judgment: go long. Derivatives data and the technical setup remain strongly aligned in a bullish formation, but there is strong resistance overhead nearby. In execution, you must buy the dips based on moving averages—strictly no chasing at higher prices directly.
On the macro side: the current market greed index is at 70, and capital rotation shows a clear pattern of “heavily buying the main chain/‘big pie,’ lightly buying the smaller one/‘small pie.’” Although traditional financial giants are pushing tokenization and a crypto-native trust bank has been approved, injecting long-term institutional regulatory expectations into the small-pie ecosystem, current organic spot demand is still insufficient to support a one-way long bull run.
Positioning and larger timeframe: the price is currently holding above the 20-period moving average on the 1-hour timeframe (2628) and the 24-hour support level (2565). The trend structure is biased bullish. However, the upside is extremely close to the strong resistance at 2708. The latest 1-hour active buy/sell volume already reflects spot selling pressure from profit-taking. If you chase directly below the resistance, the risk/reward ratio is very poor.
Trading plan: I will base my long trade on the moving average. The entry range is set at 2627.40 - 2680.75. If the 1-hour timeframe’s real body breaks below the key defensive line, I must place a strict stop-loss at 2552.83. The first upside target is 2815.31, and the second target is 2892.94. It’s recommended to use a normal, relatively small position size.
The above is purely my personal opinion. I share trading insights every day—feel free to follow and connect.
My core judgment: go long. Derivatives data and the technical setup remain strongly aligned in a bullish formation, but there is strong resistance overhead nearby. In execution, you must buy the dips based on moving averages—strictly no chasing at higher prices directly.
On the macro side: the current market greed index is at 70, and capital rotation shows a clear pattern of “heavily buying the main chain/‘big pie,’ lightly buying the smaller one/‘small pie.’” Although traditional financial giants are pushing tokenization and a crypto-native trust bank has been approved, injecting long-term institutional regulatory expectations into the small-pie ecosystem, current organic spot demand is still insufficient to support a one-way long bull run.
Positioning and larger timeframe: the price is currently holding above the 20-period moving average on the 1-hour timeframe (2628) and the 24-hour support level (2565). The trend structure is biased bullish. However, the upside is extremely close to the strong resistance at 2708. The latest 1-hour active buy/sell volume already reflects spot selling pressure from profit-taking. If you chase directly below the resistance, the risk/reward ratio is very poor.
Trading plan: I will base my long trade on the moving average. The entry range is set at 2627.40 - 2680.75. If the 1-hour timeframe’s real body breaks below the key defensive line, I must place a strict stop-loss at 2552.83. The first upside target is 2815.31, and the second target is 2892.94. It’s recommended to use a normal, relatively small position size.
The above is purely my personal opinion. I share trading insights every day—feel free to follow and connect.