PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows the probability of Polymarket's market on fewer than 25 average ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the end of September is 9%, down 38% over the past 24 hours. According to Odaily, the market will be settled based on IMF Portwatch's Bab el-Mandeb Strait ship transit data, using the 7-day moving average of "Arrivals of Ships" on September 30, 2026.

The scope includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Ships not counted by IMF Portwatch will not be included. If rounded figures in the chart differ from the original unrounded data in the downloadable file and affect settlement, the unrounded data will prevail.