Kalshi has been exposed pretty seriously this time.
Yesterday, it publicly announced trading volume of $1.91 billion. Some traders rechecked and believe the actual trading volume could be as low as $136 million.
Where is the gap?
It mainly comes down to how “parlay” bets are counted.
If you spend $1 to buy a parlay ticket that pays $14.1 for hitting all selections, Kalshi may simply count the volume as $14.1.
Even more extreme: in these combination tickets, nearly half of the positions are tied to 11 or more events.
In addition, other traders estimated that if calculated on a monthly basis, the real trading volume might be around $4.0 billion, vs. $57.0 billion on the books—a huge discrepancy.
No wonder the community has been in an uproar these past few days.
If these estimates and counting methods are ultimately confirmed to be correct, then this “trading volume” from Kalshi will really need to be discounted and reconsidered going forward.$BTC $ETH
Yesterday, it publicly announced trading volume of $1.91 billion. Some traders rechecked and believe the actual trading volume could be as low as $136 million.
Where is the gap?
It mainly comes down to how “parlay” bets are counted.
If you spend $1 to buy a parlay ticket that pays $14.1 for hitting all selections, Kalshi may simply count the volume as $14.1.
Even more extreme: in these combination tickets, nearly half of the positions are tied to 11 or more events.
In addition, other traders estimated that if calculated on a monthly basis, the real trading volume might be around $4.0 billion, vs. $57.0 billion on the books—a huge discrepancy.
No wonder the community has been in an uproar these past few days.
If these estimates and counting methods are ultimately confirmed to be correct, then this “trading volume” from Kalshi will really need to be discounted and reconsidered going forward.$BTC $ETH