【Kalshi’s Encrypted Perpetual Futures Trading Volume Faces Scrutiny: $500 Million in Turnover vs. 3.1 Million in Open Interest】
Kalshi’s newly launched regulated crypto perpetual futures contract (ETH-PERP) shows abnormal data characteristics, sparking debate in the market about the authenticity of the figures.
Quant analysts note that the platform’s ETH-PERP 24-hour trading volume reached $538 million, but open interest (OI) is only $3.1 million, with a turnover rate as high as 174 times per day. Meanwhile, the front-end positions leaderboard shows the largest single account holding at just $17.6k, creating a stark contrast with the high trading volume.
Critics argue that its business model and UI display may jointly lead to data distortion: on one hand, a market-maker mechanism with zero trading fees and a net cost of zero from bidirectional hedging—together with Jump Trading’s “liquidity-for-equity” agreement—provides incentives for high-frequency order flow; on the other hand, the front-end may have mislabelled contract quantities as dollar-denominated trading volume, which could then be magnified by aggregated terminals. It should be noted that this analysis is still based on industry individuals’ allegations and has not yet received any official conclusion from the CFTC or other regulators confirming that it involves wash-trading or volume manipulation.
Next points to watch: whether the CFTC will issue an investigation or clarification, and whether Kalshi will adjust its data presentation methodology or suspend the related contracts. You can also compare the OI/Volume ratio of its other contracts (e.g., BTC-PERP) to judge whether the anomaly is widespread. For investors, until the data definitions and official conclusions become clear, OI and the largest single-account positions should be treated as core indicators of real liquidity, rather than relying solely on trading volume.
（Related coins: ETH, BTC）
$ETH $BTC
Kalshi’s newly launched regulated crypto perpetual futures contract (ETH-PERP) shows abnormal data characteristics, sparking debate in the market about the authenticity of the figures.
Quant analysts note that the platform’s ETH-PERP 24-hour trading volume reached $538 million, but open interest (OI) is only $3.1 million, with a turnover rate as high as 174 times per day. Meanwhile, the front-end positions leaderboard shows the largest single account holding at just $17.6k, creating a stark contrast with the high trading volume.
Critics argue that its business model and UI display may jointly lead to data distortion: on one hand, a market-maker mechanism with zero trading fees and a net cost of zero from bidirectional hedging—together with Jump Trading’s “liquidity-for-equity” agreement—provides incentives for high-frequency order flow; on the other hand, the front-end may have mislabelled contract quantities as dollar-denominated trading volume, which could then be magnified by aggregated terminals. It should be noted that this analysis is still based on industry individuals’ allegations and has not yet received any official conclusion from the CFTC or other regulators confirming that it involves wash-trading or volume manipulation.
Next points to watch: whether the CFTC will issue an investigation or clarification, and whether Kalshi will adjust its data presentation methodology or suspend the related contracts. You can also compare the OI/Volume ratio of its other contracts (e.g., BTC-PERP) to judge whether the anomaly is widespread. For investors, until the data definitions and official conclusions become clear, OI and the largest single-account positions should be treated as core indicators of real liquidity, rather than relying solely on trading volume.
（Related coins: ETH, BTC）
$ETH $BTC