#每日分析 #BTC走势分析
Last night’s sudden surge wasn’t good news coming out of nowhere—the shorts were the first to break under pressure.
Last night, I judged that as long as BTC held above $77,000, it would push toward $80,000, and then continue to test the $82,000–$83,000 range.
Right now, the highest has already reached around $81,600. The direction has basically played out—only the speed is faster than I expected.
The reason isn’t complicated.
The rate hike, the dovish/pivot-less hawkish dot plot, and the regulatory bill being blocked have all already been priced in. But BTC has never broken down below $75,000–$76,000. Since bearish news can’t pull it down, the shorts naturally start getting nervous.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs have shifted from continuous outflows to net inflows over the past two days of about $590 million. Expectations around U.S. regulation are also improving. Spot capital first pushes the price up to $80,000; then the shorts stop-losses kick in, further amplifying the rally.
From a technical perspective, BTC has already reclaimed the 4-hour MA30, MA120, and MA200. MACD continues to expand volume, and the bulls have regained initiative. However, both RSI and KDJ have entered overbought territory. The $81,600–$82,300 area is also a nearby overhead resistance zone, so chasing at these levels doesn’t offer a good risk-reward ratio.
Before the end of the month, the focus is on three levels:
Hold $80,000—trend remains relatively strong, with upside toward $84,000–$85,000.
Break below $79,000—this would suggest the breakout needs to be confirmed again, and price may pull back to around $78,000.
Break again below $77,500—only then would this rally be considered clearly failed.
I think the rest of September will be choppy but biased upward. Still, above $82,000 is the real test: if bearish news doesn’t drop price, it means the positioning is getting stronger. Only if it trades volume and holds above $82,300 can we call it a true trend reversal. If it can’t hold, then it’s still just a strong but temporary rebound.
$BTC $ETH
Last night’s sudden surge wasn’t good news coming out of nowhere—the shorts were the first to break under pressure.
Last night, I judged that as long as BTC held above $77,000, it would push toward $80,000, and then continue to test the $82,000–$83,000 range.
Right now, the highest has already reached around $81,600. The direction has basically played out—only the speed is faster than I expected.
The reason isn’t complicated.
The rate hike, the dovish/pivot-less hawkish dot plot, and the regulatory bill being blocked have all already been priced in. But BTC has never broken down below $75,000–$76,000. Since bearish news can’t pull it down, the shorts naturally start getting nervous.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs have shifted from continuous outflows to net inflows over the past two days of about $590 million. Expectations around U.S. regulation are also improving. Spot capital first pushes the price up to $80,000; then the shorts stop-losses kick in, further amplifying the rally.
From a technical perspective, BTC has already reclaimed the 4-hour MA30, MA120, and MA200. MACD continues to expand volume, and the bulls have regained initiative. However, both RSI and KDJ have entered overbought territory. The $81,600–$82,300 area is also a nearby overhead resistance zone, so chasing at these levels doesn’t offer a good risk-reward ratio.
Before the end of the month, the focus is on three levels:
Hold $80,000—trend remains relatively strong, with upside toward $84,000–$85,000.
Break below $79,000—this would suggest the breakout needs to be confirmed again, and price may pull back to around $78,000.
Break again below $77,500—only then would this rally be considered clearly failed.
I think the rest of September will be choppy but biased upward. Still, above $82,000 is the real test: if bearish news doesn’t drop price, it means the positioning is getting stronger. Only if it trades volume and holds above $82,300 can we call it a true trend reversal. If it can’t hold, then it’s still just a strong but temporary rebound.
$BTC $ETH