ETH regains 2600: Momentum is heating up, but the confirmation isn’t finished yet—I’ll decide after a pullback
In this round, my bias is slightly bullish, but I won’t chase just because <c-1/> #EthereumReclaims$2600 on the Binance Square is warming up. From a factual standpoint, ETH-USDT perpetuals have been pushed up consecutively from the 2570–2585 zone. In the past few hours, it first reclaimed 2600 and 2630, and briefly tagged 2709.9; at the time I recorded it, the price was around 2661. In other words, “regaining 2600” isn’t just a slogan—the chart has indeed completed the first step of repair. However, the quick drop from above 2700 back to around 2642, followed by a rebound to 2660, also shows that short-term profit-taking and overhead supply are still present.
What I care about more is whether this rally is driven by healthy spot absorption, not just by looking at how much it’s gone up. In the public futures data, the current funding rate is about +0.00835%: longs are paying, but not to an extreme level. Open interest is roughly $1.59 billion in contract terms. On the 15-minute structure, after the price surged into 2709, a high-volume bearish candle quickly dropped from around 2681 to 2642. After that, the rebound was decent, but it hasn’t yet reclaimed 2685–2700. For me, this combination reads as “trend strengthening, but chasing is getting worse in terms of price efficiency”—not an all-in, eyes-closed long.
A high-quality continuation should look like: 2600 is not lost again, 2640–2660 turns into the pullback/absorption zone, and then 2685 and 2700 get reclaimed.
The macro environment can’t be ignored either. The Bank of Japan has just raised its policy rate to 1.25%, around a 31-year high, adding another layer of disturbance to global liquidity expectations. The crypto market choosing to go up doesn’t mean macro risk has disappeared. If USD liquidity tightens again, high-volatility assets are often the first to be reduced. So I’ll treat this ETH move as a structural repair trade, not treat a trending topic as a guaranteed trend.
Recap of my previous ETH plan: at the time, I said I wouldn’t chase near 2696, and would wait for a pullback to 2635–2645, then consider testing longs only after reclaiming 2670. After that, the highest price reached 2709.9, then it fell back to 2642.1—this confirms the risk judgment that “don’t chase highs.” But the confirmation that it has reclaimed 2670 is currently not stable, so I can’t write that trigger as already filled, nor can I say it’s already in profit.
If I were trading it myself, I’d be mostly observing right now, preparing only conditional, small-sized longs. The first approach: after price pulls back to 2640–2650, if on the 15-minute chart it reclaims 2668 and the rebound’s成交量 doesn’t clearly deteriorate, then I’ll use spot capital of within 3% to试仓. First watch 2685–2700; once it holds, then look toward 2725. Near 2685, I’ll cut one-third. From 2700 to 2725, I’ll take profit in batches. If, after entering, the 15-minute close drops below 2638, I’ll cut the position in half. If there’s a valid break below 2622 on the 1-hour chart, it means the repair failed and I’ll exit completely.
The second approach is to long only a direct breakout of 2700—but I also won’t chase the first candle. I’ll wait for a pullback to 2685 and confirm it holds before considering. Position sizing still won’t exceed 3%. If price breaks back below 2600 again, my bullish bias for this round is invalidated. I’d rather keep staying in cash/spot (no positions) than add aggressively out of revenge. Even if I do participate with contracts, the maximum risk allocation would be no more than 1% of principal, low leverage. If I’m wrong, I withdraw immediately.
Trending topics can draw attention, but they can’t replace entry confirmation. Bulls have the edge now, but 2700 is still the near-term point of disagreement, while 2600 is the lifeline of this repair. The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#EthereumReclaims$2600 $ETH
In this round, my bias is slightly bullish, but I won’t chase just because <c-1/> #EthereumReclaims$2600 on the Binance Square is warming up. From a factual standpoint, ETH-USDT perpetuals have been pushed up consecutively from the 2570–2585 zone. In the past few hours, it first reclaimed 2600 and 2630, and briefly tagged 2709.9; at the time I recorded it, the price was around 2661. In other words, “regaining 2600” isn’t just a slogan—the chart has indeed completed the first step of repair. However, the quick drop from above 2700 back to around 2642, followed by a rebound to 2660, also shows that short-term profit-taking and overhead supply are still present.
What I care about more is whether this rally is driven by healthy spot absorption, not just by looking at how much it’s gone up. In the public futures data, the current funding rate is about +0.00835%: longs are paying, but not to an extreme level. Open interest is roughly $1.59 billion in contract terms. On the 15-minute structure, after the price surged into 2709, a high-volume bearish candle quickly dropped from around 2681 to 2642. After that, the rebound was decent, but it hasn’t yet reclaimed 2685–2700. For me, this combination reads as “trend strengthening, but chasing is getting worse in terms of price efficiency”—not an all-in, eyes-closed long.
A high-quality continuation should look like: 2600 is not lost again, 2640–2660 turns into the pullback/absorption zone, and then 2685 and 2700 get reclaimed.
The macro environment can’t be ignored either. The Bank of Japan has just raised its policy rate to 1.25%, around a 31-year high, adding another layer of disturbance to global liquidity expectations. The crypto market choosing to go up doesn’t mean macro risk has disappeared. If USD liquidity tightens again, high-volatility assets are often the first to be reduced. So I’ll treat this ETH move as a structural repair trade, not treat a trending topic as a guaranteed trend.
Recap of my previous ETH plan: at the time, I said I wouldn’t chase near 2696, and would wait for a pullback to 2635–2645, then consider testing longs only after reclaiming 2670. After that, the highest price reached 2709.9, then it fell back to 2642.1—this confirms the risk judgment that “don’t chase highs.” But the confirmation that it has reclaimed 2670 is currently not stable, so I can’t write that trigger as already filled, nor can I say it’s already in profit.
If I were trading it myself, I’d be mostly observing right now, preparing only conditional, small-sized longs. The first approach: after price pulls back to 2640–2650, if on the 15-minute chart it reclaims 2668 and the rebound’s成交量 doesn’t clearly deteriorate, then I’ll use spot capital of within 3% to试仓. First watch 2685–2700; once it holds, then look toward 2725. Near 2685, I’ll cut one-third. From 2700 to 2725, I’ll take profit in batches. If, after entering, the 15-minute close drops below 2638, I’ll cut the position in half. If there’s a valid break below 2622 on the 1-hour chart, it means the repair failed and I’ll exit completely.
The second approach is to long only a direct breakout of 2700—but I also won’t chase the first candle. I’ll wait for a pullback to 2685 and confirm it holds before considering. Position sizing still won’t exceed 3%. If price breaks back below 2600 again, my bullish bias for this round is invalidated. I’d rather keep staying in cash/spot (no positions) than add aggressively out of revenge. Even if I do participate with contracts, the maximum risk allocation would be no more than 1% of principal, low leverage. If I’m wrong, I withdraw immediately.
Trending topics can draw attention, but they can’t replace entry confirmation. Bulls have the edge now, but 2700 is still the near-term point of disagreement, while 2600 is the lifeline of this repair. The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#EthereumReclaims$2600 $ETH
