82,000 only returned to the lower end of the strong-pressure range. According to Glassnode’s early-September data, between 83,000 and 86,000 there are chips held by about 1.07 million long-term holders, and the ETF’s overall break-even point is also near 86,000. By the beginning of September, it had already been in an unrealized loss for 228 consecutive trading days.
Whether it can truly “break through the wall” depends on three indicators. First, does Bitcoin’s weekly close hold above $86,000? That would mean the 1.07 million breakout/unstuck lots have been digested. Second, do U.S. spot ETFs see net inflows exceeding $1.5 billion every week for three consecutive weeks? That would indicate sustained new money rather than a one-day spike. Third, has the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to below 5%? That would mean the risk-free rate is no longer weighing on risk assets.
None of the three indicators have been met so far—only that conditions aren’t worsening. On September 19, the price hovered around 81,000, still about 6% away from 86,000. ETF outflows were $746 million in the first two days of this week and inflows were $593 million in the next two days; over the week it basically broke even, so there’s no basis to call it continuous inflow. The 30-year Treasury yield closed on September 18 at 5.33%, still above 5%. The options market is even more straightforward: the biggest pain point is at 72,000, with sell orders for call options stacked at 85,000 and 90,000. The people selling options are betting the price can’t move out of the range from 72,000 to 85,000.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Whether it can truly “break through the wall” depends on three indicators. First, does Bitcoin’s weekly close hold above $86,000? That would mean the 1.07 million breakout/unstuck lots have been digested. Second, do U.S. spot ETFs see net inflows exceeding $1.5 billion every week for three consecutive weeks? That would indicate sustained new money rather than a one-day spike. Third, has the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to below 5%? That would mean the risk-free rate is no longer weighing on risk assets.
None of the three indicators have been met so far—only that conditions aren’t worsening. On September 19, the price hovered around 81,000, still about 6% away from 86,000. ETF outflows were $746 million in the first two days of this week and inflows were $593 million in the next two days; over the week it basically broke even, so there’s no basis to call it continuous inflow. The 30-year Treasury yield closed on September 18 at 5.33%, still above 5%. The options market is even more straightforward: the biggest pain point is at 72,000, with sell orders for call options stacked at 85,000 and 90,000. The people selling options are betting the price can’t move out of the range from 72,000 to 85,000.
$BTC $ETH $SOL