This week, Bitcoin closed at 81,588.5 USDT, with a weekly gain of only 0.55%. But what people are discussing in the forum is that it rose 1.64% and broke above $78,000. These two figures don’t conflict—they just refer to different time windows. The real driver that pushed the price higher was the daily candle on 09-18: it rose 5.86% in a single day, jumping from 76,385.8 USDT straight to 80,863 USDT. After that, the following three days mainly churned sideways in place as the move was digested.
For those trading BTCUSDT short-term, they shouldn’t focus only on the breakout itself, but on whether the move can continue after the breakout.
The rhythm this week is actually very clear. On 09-15, it first fell 3.27% and closed at 75,599.9 USDT, swallowing up the entire prior day’s gain. On 09-18, a bullish candle threw the four-day consolidation range below it, closing at 80,863 USDT. From 09-19 to 09-21, the three days’ gains/losses were 0.45%, -0.1%, and 0.55% respectively. The price oscillated tightly, staying just above and below each other, and the weekly high was the closing price of 81,588.5 USDT. This pattern suggests the bulls’ sentiment has been repaired, but the repair slope is slowing down—the momentum is concentrated within a single day rather than sustained buying.
Popular posts in the forum believe that breaking above $78,000 is a signal that short-term sentiment is turning positive (paraphrased; not necessarily this site’s viewpoint). Discussion centers on two things: whether the trapped positions’ supply near $78,000 can be digested, and whether after the breakout the price might again spike and then retreat like it did in the previous few weeks. My view is relatively neutral: the price is indeed trading above $78,000, but this week’s 0.55% gain, along with the fact that in the 200-week sample there are 90 weeks that are stronger, indicates this isn’t a strong week. The forum’s sentiment is more optimistic than the data.
A straight truth: the single-day 5.86% gap-up rally will leave a gap. On 09-17 it closed at 76,385.9 USDT; on 09-18 it opened from 76,385.8 USDT—those who chased the price have their costs clustered near the high. During the sideways consolidation, high leverage is the easiest to grind down. With the default maker fee rate at 0.02% and taker fee rate at 0.05%, after returning 20%, the effective maker fee is 0.016% and taker fee is 0.04%. The cost difference between high-frequency entries and exits will accumulate. #Bitcoin rises 1.64% and breaks $78,000
#币安 #手续费 $BTC
For those trading BTCUSDT short-term, they shouldn’t focus only on the breakout itself, but on whether the move can continue after the breakout.
The rhythm this week is actually very clear. On 09-15, it first fell 3.27% and closed at 75,599.9 USDT, swallowing up the entire prior day’s gain. On 09-18, a bullish candle threw the four-day consolidation range below it, closing at 80,863 USDT. From 09-19 to 09-21, the three days’ gains/losses were 0.45%, -0.1%, and 0.55% respectively. The price oscillated tightly, staying just above and below each other, and the weekly high was the closing price of 81,588.5 USDT. This pattern suggests the bulls’ sentiment has been repaired, but the repair slope is slowing down—the momentum is concentrated within a single day rather than sustained buying.
Popular posts in the forum believe that breaking above $78,000 is a signal that short-term sentiment is turning positive (paraphrased; not necessarily this site’s viewpoint). Discussion centers on two things: whether the trapped positions’ supply near $78,000 can be digested, and whether after the breakout the price might again spike and then retreat like it did in the previous few weeks. My view is relatively neutral: the price is indeed trading above $78,000, but this week’s 0.55% gain, along with the fact that in the 200-week sample there are 90 weeks that are stronger, indicates this isn’t a strong week. The forum’s sentiment is more optimistic than the data.
A straight truth: the single-day 5.86% gap-up rally will leave a gap. On 09-17 it closed at 76,385.9 USDT; on 09-18 it opened from 76,385.8 USDT—those who chased the price have their costs clustered near the high. During the sideways consolidation, high leverage is the easiest to grind down. With the default maker fee rate at 0.02% and taker fee rate at 0.05%, after returning 20%, the effective maker fee is 0.016% and taker fee is 0.04%. The cost difference between high-frequency entries and exits will accumulate. #Bitcoin rises 1.64% and breaks $78,000
#币安 #手续费 $BTC