Systematic destruction of the enemy’s logistics, energy, and the military-industrial complex forces it to pay an unbearable price for the war. When strategic enterprises in the very capital break down, it significantly accelerates economic and resource shortages in Russia.
The main factors that support this scenario:
Scaling up its own MIC: The regularity of strikes with heavy missiles and long-range drones deprives the enemy of a deep rear.
Cumulative effect on the economy: Systematic loss of oil refining and fuel depots directly affects the logistics of the Russian army and the civilian sector.
Bargaining position: The enemy’s complete lack of a sense of security in Moscow is one of the strongest levers to make the Kremlin take Ukraine’s terms into account.
If this trend persists and intensifies by winter, Russia will face a harsh choice between internal collapse and a forced halt to hostilities on terms acceptable to Ukraine.
The main factors that support this scenario:
Scaling up its own MIC: The regularity of strikes with heavy missiles and long-range drones deprives the enemy of a deep rear.
Cumulative effect on the economy: Systematic loss of oil refining and fuel depots directly affects the logistics of the Russian army and the civilian sector.
Bargaining position: The enemy’s complete lack of a sense of security in Moscow is one of the strongest levers to make the Kremlin take Ukraine’s terms into account.
If this trend persists and intensifies by winter, Russia will face a harsh choice between internal collapse and a forced halt to hostilities on terms acceptable to Ukraine.