$PONS This move is pretty aggressive. In the 15m chart, it jumps +2.67% straight away; the volume hits 4.79x of normal levels; volatility Z is 3.39; the order-book buy/sell ratio is 1.92; and the aggressive buy side is skewed by 31.5%. But what’s really worth watching is the OI—15m -0.68%, 1h -0.83%. As the price pushes up, open interest is actually declining, while the notional change is still +2–3%. **This isn’t a rally kicked off by new longs; it looks more like shorts being forced to cover, or older positions getting collectively paid back.**
By the close, it has already broken above the upper edge of the recent 20-ish 5m K range, reaching the recent price boundary. The whole pool’s abnormal percentile is 93.5%. It spans multiple timeframes and has continued uninterrupted; 24h turnover is 103M. The depth is confirmed—not just a single spike.
However, the combination of OI down + price up usually doesn’t have as strong continuity as volume and positions rising together. What you fear most in a squeeze is that once the forced covering ends, the people chasing higher realize there’s nobody left to take the bids underneath. In this kind of spot, I usually wait for a pullback to confirm before acting. I don’t rush with the first wave up. I wait until OI stops falling and rebounds, and until the price holds above the top edge of the range—then that’s the cleaner signal. $PONS
By the close, it has already broken above the upper edge of the recent 20-ish 5m K range, reaching the recent price boundary. The whole pool’s abnormal percentile is 93.5%. It spans multiple timeframes and has continued uninterrupted; 24h turnover is 103M. The depth is confirmed—not just a single spike.
However, the combination of OI down + price up usually doesn’t have as strong continuity as volume and positions rising together. What you fear most in a squeeze is that once the forced covering ends, the people chasing higher realize there’s nobody left to take the bids underneath. In this kind of spot, I usually wait for a pullback to confirm before acting. I don’t rush with the first wave up. I wait until OI stops falling and rebounds, and until the price holds above the top edge of the range—then that’s the cleaner signal. $PONS