On September 15, the U.S. Senate voted on a motion to proceed with the termination debate for the “Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act). The vote was 49 in favor and 50 against—11 votes short of the 60 needed to advance. What failed was a procedural threshold, not the final vote on the bill’s content—but for a bill that has been discussed for almost a year, the distinction matters little.
Polymarket’s odds moved even earlier than the vote: a peak of about 82% after the committee approved it in February, around 70% in mid-June, a drop to 48% by the end of June following a Jefferies warning about Senate risk, then down to roughly 15% shortly before the vote. After the vote failed, it fell to about 5%. The so-called “odds halved” is, in effect, from 82% to 5%—only about one-sixteenth. Total trading volume across the related contracts was approximately $21.3 million.
Where’s the sticking point? Mainly the “moral clause”: Democrats want an enforceable divestiture or blind trust for the crypto assets of senior officials, while the Republican leadership argues that the other side keeps moving the goalposts. In addition, the stablecoin yield provisions and how DeFi protocols should be classified are also disputed. Lummis warns that if this session of Congress is missed, the next realistic window may not arrive until 2030.
My stance is very clear: the legislative path is basically closed for this year, but regulation won’t stop. Bernstein believes the SEC and the CFTC will “actively and quickly” move forward with rulemaking, and the SEC’s Regulation of Crypto Assets proposal is open for public comment until October 20. The truly actionable timing for ordinary users is here—not at the Senate’s next vote. The soft spot in administrative rules is reversibility: a change in administration or a lawsuit could rewrite them.
I’d like to hear your view: will you treat the October 20 comment-deadline as an observation point, or do you think the rulemaking upside has already been priced in by the market?
#Polymarket “CLARITY Act” Legislative Odds Halved
Polymarket’s odds moved even earlier than the vote: a peak of about 82% after the committee approved it in February, around 70% in mid-June, a drop to 48% by the end of June following a Jefferies warning about Senate risk, then down to roughly 15% shortly before the vote. After the vote failed, it fell to about 5%. The so-called “odds halved” is, in effect, from 82% to 5%—only about one-sixteenth. Total trading volume across the related contracts was approximately $21.3 million.
Where’s the sticking point? Mainly the “moral clause”: Democrats want an enforceable divestiture or blind trust for the crypto assets of senior officials, while the Republican leadership argues that the other side keeps moving the goalposts. In addition, the stablecoin yield provisions and how DeFi protocols should be classified are also disputed. Lummis warns that if this session of Congress is missed, the next realistic window may not arrive until 2030.
My stance is very clear: the legislative path is basically closed for this year, but regulation won’t stop. Bernstein believes the SEC and the CFTC will “actively and quickly” move forward with rulemaking, and the SEC’s Regulation of Crypto Assets proposal is open for public comment until October 20. The truly actionable timing for ordinary users is here—not at the Senate’s next vote. The soft spot in administrative rules is reversibility: a change in administration or a lawsuit could rewrite them.
I’d like to hear your view: will you treat the October 20 comment-deadline as an observation point, or do you think the rulemaking upside has already been priced in by the market?
#Polymarket “CLARITY Act” Legislative Odds Halved