$ETH’s current price hovers around 2,581, with a roughly 2.1% pullback over the past 24 hours. The current move looks more like testing a critical line of defense. Overall, the market is maintaining a choppy-to-downward bottoming rhythm, but bearish momentum shows signs of partial exhaustion near the support level.
My core view: I choose to go short, but I need to wait for confirmation on a rebound. Given the technical setup and a convergence of bearish signals—declining derivatives positioning and a sharp drop in the long/short ratio—ETH/market relative strength is extremely weak. However, since the current price is already extremely close to lower support, you must not chase blindly; wait for a rebound back toward the 1-hour moving average before entering on the high side.
Macro picture: The Fear & Greed Index is as high as 71, but overall risk appetite has not collapsed. Meanwhile, overseas narratives suggest capital is siphoning into BTC—“holding assets other than BTC is a losing trade” has become a phase consensus. ETH is facing a headwind of liquidity drying up. Although Wall Street giants are pushing for tokenization of institutions to provide a long-term base, in the short to medium term there still isn’t independent upward capital consensus.
Positioning and larger timeframe: The current price remains pressured below the 20-period moving average on the 1-hour chart (2,595), and the trend structure is clearly bearish. Closely below is the 24-hour support at 2,562; overhead resistance is at 2,669. If price strongly rebounds and holds above 2,669, then the current downtrend would be completely invalidated and the short thesis would fail.
Trading plan: I choose to short on rallies. The entry zone is 2,568.22–2,619.85, with special focus on finding entries near the 2,595 moving average. Stop-loss is strictly set at 2,682.34. First target: 2,436.45. Second target: 2,360.57. It’s recommended to use a relatively small position size. Recent surging activity in short-term buys and sells indicates that there is likely some aggressive accumulation near the 2,562 support. Also, the recent sharp rebounds are largely driven by short liquidations. Be sure to strictly follow the stop-loss, and guard against technical rebounds and the risk of being squeezed upward by upward spikes.
The above is purely my personal opinion. I share trading reflections daily—feel free to follow and connect.
My core view: I choose to go short, but I need to wait for confirmation on a rebound. Given the technical setup and a convergence of bearish signals—declining derivatives positioning and a sharp drop in the long/short ratio—ETH/market relative strength is extremely weak. However, since the current price is already extremely close to lower support, you must not chase blindly; wait for a rebound back toward the 1-hour moving average before entering on the high side.
Macro picture: The Fear & Greed Index is as high as 71, but overall risk appetite has not collapsed. Meanwhile, overseas narratives suggest capital is siphoning into BTC—“holding assets other than BTC is a losing trade” has become a phase consensus. ETH is facing a headwind of liquidity drying up. Although Wall Street giants are pushing for tokenization of institutions to provide a long-term base, in the short to medium term there still isn’t independent upward capital consensus.
Positioning and larger timeframe: The current price remains pressured below the 20-period moving average on the 1-hour chart (2,595), and the trend structure is clearly bearish. Closely below is the 24-hour support at 2,562; overhead resistance is at 2,669. If price strongly rebounds and holds above 2,669, then the current downtrend would be completely invalidated and the short thesis would fail.
Trading plan: I choose to short on rallies. The entry zone is 2,568.22–2,619.85, with special focus on finding entries near the 2,595 moving average. Stop-loss is strictly set at 2,682.34. First target: 2,436.45. Second target: 2,360.57. It’s recommended to use a relatively small position size. Recent surging activity in short-term buys and sells indicates that there is likely some aggressive accumulation near the 2,562 support. Also, the recent sharp rebounds are largely driven by short liquidations. Be sure to strictly follow the stop-loss, and guard against technical rebounds and the risk of being squeezed upward by upward spikes.
The above is purely my personal opinion. I share trading reflections daily—feel free to follow and connect.