⚡ Hot Spot Break-in 22:22
Geopolitical risks clustered and erupted, yet the U.S. stock market remains unmoved
📰 What happened
Ukraine launched one of the largest drone attacks to date against Russia, deploying more than 1,600 drones to strike the Moscow region and hit one of the area’s major oil refineries—just 6 days after Trump said both sides agreed not to target each other’s energy facilities. Trump then told Fox News that he’s in “decision mode,” that “something very big” is about to happen, and described his options regarding Iran as “clear out Iran,” “let Iran’s economy rot,” or “reach an agreement.” Economist Steve Hanke also publicly commented at the same time, saying Trump’s “selective war” on Iran is a “high-cost catastrophe.”
💡 What is this
QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, whose constituent stocks are concentrated in technology and growth companies; SPY tracks the S&P 500 index, with broader coverage and includes large-cap stocks across all sectors. One is like putting money on a small group of the fastest runners, while the other is more like spreading bets across the entire field. The Kobeissi Letter believes that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine are driving up energy prices, which will affect various types of assets that are sensitive to energy costs. QQQ, tilted toward tech growth, and SPY, tilted toward the whole market, offer two different angles of how market sentiment reacts to such geopolitical risks.
🎯 How to look at it
By putting Trump’s choices regarding Iran on the table, it suggests the matter is weighty. But the Nasdaq and S&P currently show almost no reaction— the market hasn’t treated it as a big deal yet.
If Trump really makes the “very big decision” he mentioned soon, and if the direction leans toward military action rather than negotiations, then today’s assessment that “the market isn’t taking it seriously” would no longer hold.
Next, watch what “soon” means in Trump’s words, and whether those two price points—QQQ at 719.98 and SPY at 762.62—get broken by geopolitical developments.
The above is for personal sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
$QQQ $SPY
Geopolitical risks clustered and erupted, yet the U.S. stock market remains unmoved
📰 What happened
Ukraine launched one of the largest drone attacks to date against Russia, deploying more than 1,600 drones to strike the Moscow region and hit one of the area’s major oil refineries—just 6 days after Trump said both sides agreed not to target each other’s energy facilities. Trump then told Fox News that he’s in “decision mode,” that “something very big” is about to happen, and described his options regarding Iran as “clear out Iran,” “let Iran’s economy rot,” or “reach an agreement.” Economist Steve Hanke also publicly commented at the same time, saying Trump’s “selective war” on Iran is a “high-cost catastrophe.”
💡 What is this
QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, whose constituent stocks are concentrated in technology and growth companies; SPY tracks the S&P 500 index, with broader coverage and includes large-cap stocks across all sectors. One is like putting money on a small group of the fastest runners, while the other is more like spreading bets across the entire field. The Kobeissi Letter believes that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine are driving up energy prices, which will affect various types of assets that are sensitive to energy costs. QQQ, tilted toward tech growth, and SPY, tilted toward the whole market, offer two different angles of how market sentiment reacts to such geopolitical risks.
🎯 How to look at it
By putting Trump’s choices regarding Iran on the table, it suggests the matter is weighty. But the Nasdaq and S&P currently show almost no reaction— the market hasn’t treated it as a big deal yet.
If Trump really makes the “very big decision” he mentioned soon, and if the direction leans toward military action rather than negotiations, then today’s assessment that “the market isn’t taking it seriously” would no longer hold.
Next, watch what “soon” means in Trump’s words, and whether those two price points—QQQ at 719.98 and SPY at 762.62—get broken by geopolitical developments.
The above is for personal sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
$QQQ $SPY